10000 to 4crs in 18 months 1000rs to 50crs 300% returns 75% promoter holdings A 50 bagger A sureshot 5 bagger Analysis Another fraud? Auto ancillaries Bank sector Blind sell Brand plays Broking Bse Nse Buy calls cements Ceramics/tiles Counters I don't like Debt free businesses Delisting candidates demerger bets Disclosure- I own them Domestic consumption plays E-Commerce pick Education Exit at rallies Famous analysts Famous stocks FMCG Footwear future multibaggers Gems andJewellery Hidden gems High conviction ideas High dividend plays High potential small caps High ROE stocks Holding companies Hotel sector How they looted you.. Indian stock market Infrastructure sector Interesting Microcaps IT KPO Landbank plays largecap ideas Less than 5 PE stocks Liquor Logistics Market lessons Market outlook for 2013 and 2014 Market underperformers Meeting with the CEO Metals Monopoly businesses My 5 baggers My Favourite counters My paid stock recommendations My stock picking techniques nse bse tips Oil exploration Operator calls Paints Penny stock outlook penny stock updates Pharma sector Poultry stocks PSU Publicity freaks Real estate Renewable energy plays Safe bets Sell recommendations Share market Live shipping stocks short term call SOTP plays stock tips stock under 10rs Stocks to watch out for Strong bonus candidates Takeover candidates TATA product tea Textiles The 13 bagger The 45 bagger Trading companies Transformers Turnaround bets Tyres Uncertain/Risky business models Unique businesses

Search This Blog(Over 800 companies covered in the blog).

Archives : Old artciles

Friday, June 27, 2008

Cairn Energy-BUY,HDIL-Sell

Recently a freind of mine who works as an analyst in ubs forwarded me their coverage on cairn energy.Its an interesting report and if cairn comes out with numbers as per UBS estimates-Expect huge upsides on the counter.

Scripscan:Cairn india ltd
Traded in:Nse-bse

[Cairn india ltd news,views and analysis/Oil exploration company/turning it on/buy call given by ubs/major beneficary of high crude oil prices/upcoming results/great future prospects/going to do wonders/target price/Hidden gem/Great bet to own/what to do with cairn energy ltd?]

Upgrading to Buy on revision of UBS crude oil prices:We upgrade our rating on Cairn India to Buy (from Sell) and price target to Rs374 (from Rs246) on the back of the upward revision to UBS forecasts for crude oil price. UBS revised the oil price forecasts for all years from CY08 and including the long-term forecast. Given our new explicit oil price forecasts till CY12, we believe the current price reflects a long-term oil price of only $48/bbl.

UBS raises the oil price forecasts including long-term forecast:UBS has raised the oil price forecast to US$ 113.5/120/116/135/155 per barrel in 2008/09/10/11/12 respectively primarily driven by the expectation of supplies falling short of demand substantially pulling down spare capacities. UBS has also raised its long-term oil forecast from $73/bbl to $95/bbl from 2013, on the expectations of higher cost inflation in key upstream projects and GlobalOilCo.

Raising earnings estimates for Cairn India:Driven by the new higher forecasts for crude oil, we raise the earnings estimates for Cairn India in CY08/09/10 by 209%/110%/73% to Rs 1.4/14.0/74.6 respectively. We do not revise any of our assumptions on productions costs in doing so.

Valuation:We change our rating to Buy and raise our target price to Rs 374. Our price target is based on our NAV estimate for Cairn India's E&P assets. We use a DCF to value CIL's stake in Rajasthan, Ravva and Cambay blocks. For the remainder of CIL's assets, we use EV ($)/boe. We also factor in exploration upside by assuming net unrisked reserves of 550 mmboe adjusted by a risk weight of 20%.


Another report made by one of my research analyst freind.
[Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd(HDIL) news,views and analysis/future prospects/buy,hold or sell?/real estate downfall/bombay airport/what to do with HDIL?/better bets available/reason for upmove in JPT securities/scrips and companies to buy below 500rs/prospects of realty sector]

HDIL-Mired In Dharavi
BSE 532873; CMP Rs 338

Industrialists/Businessmen/Investors must realise that charity and politics do not go hand in hand in India. Look at HDIL which is undertaking a mammoth project for the reconstruction and rehabilitation of the slums adjoining the Bombay Airport, known as Dharavi.

What HDIL promoters and investors do not realise is that the project will see huge arm twisting and flow of grease money to successive political parties which are and would be governing Maharashtra, the labour unions and local legislators.

The Dharavai slum rehab will costs huge sums and will be spread over years if not decades, and ultimately meet the same fate as Enron's 2000 MW LNG based $ 3 bn Thermal Power Plant at Dharwad, which inspite of its re-christening as Ratnagiri Power and owners like NTPC, remains non-operational long after Enron collapsed.

The HDIL stock is a Sell, even though the notes given below by the management will make us feel otherwise.

Airport project to generate revenues from 1QFY09:Management expects that the company will convey ~53 acres of land for the first phase of the project (involving resettlement of 18,000 – 22,000 families) in
1QFY09 . As per estimates this move will generate Land TDR of ~3m sf. Revenues on the same could also be recognised in 1QFY09 itself.

The first phase of rehabilitation families is expected to take 24 months.
Recent policy changes on SRA beneficial

Management has welcomed the increase in size of tenement given under the slum redevelopment scheme from 225sf to 269sf of carpet area (460 sf super built up) as they believe that while increased FSI will compensate the developers for constructing a larger house, a larger unit size will also make it easier to convince the slum dwellers to move from their existing dwelling.

Increase in housing size also adds to the TDR receivable from the airport project, which the management now expects to be 40m sf (construction TDR).

Land requirement for airport project:The increase in applicable FSI for high density slum rehab scheme from 3x to 4x brings down land requirement for resettlement of airport project to an estimated 150 acres of land. HDIL expects to tie-up the land at an average price of Rs200m/ acre. It has acquired and paid for about 1/3rd of land requirement, which will be utilized for the first phase of the project.

TDR realisations:In the first phase of the Mumbai airport resettlement project, families will likely move to Kurla, which will be considered as the source of TDRs. Hence, these TDRs could fetch premium valuation as the point of origination will mean that these TDRs could be utilised in high value zone adjacent to Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC).

Increase in FSI in suburban Mumbai to 1.33x:The move is likely to impact the demand for TDRs adversely as developers will likely buy 0.33x of FSI from the state government.

No immediate need to raise additional funds:The company’s outstanding debt has increased by Rs18bn so far in FY08 to Rs22bn to buy land for airport resettlement project and the Vasai SEZ project. The gross debt/equity ratio is still reasonable at 0.73. The current cash balance of Rs17bn includes the recent commercial asset sale.

source:Rajb haanda

I can be reached


Unknown said...

Hi Arun Da,
Just came to know your blog a week ago. Amazed by your brilliance and determination to stock market.M a 20 yr old boy and is an amatuer to stock market with hardly 6m experience. With bull run here to stay as per market itz mother of all bull run can you please guide your small brother.I live in kolkata only and hope to meet you someday.

Anywaz the question was cshould i buy ennore coke @ current levels. In these past six months what i found is off track share has lot of potential starting from ratnametal to global offshore. Smallcaps and midcaps sz what i actually like to invest . With u as big brother the journey will be more smoother.

Again thanking you for such reports.

Equity wealth said...

Bangali bacchra stock e interested hocche dekhe khub bhalo laglo.Ya kokhono bari chole ashis amar.Enncore coke age track kortam,ekhon kori na.If you know the story,feel its good then you can go for it.5-6 ta point mathai rakh.

Promoters/management quality,Scalebility of the biz,moat or competitive advantage,pricing power,positive cashflows and good roe-roce.Ei 6 ta thik thakle,sona peye gechis.

Important Disclaimer&Privacy policy

This blog does not share personal information with third parties nor do we store any information about your visit to this blog other than to analyze and optimize your content and reading experience through the use of cookies.You can turn off the use of cookies at anytime by changing your specific browser settings.This privacy policy is subject to change without notice and was last updated on 20.3.2013. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me directly here: Investment in equity shares has its own risks.Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective.The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that I consider reliable. I,however,do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof.This material is for personal information and am not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above.The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance.The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice.

Subscription to Arunthestocksguru

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner