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Monday, June 30, 2008

Market outlook and analysis of some important sector

[shoping time in indian stock markets/technical analysis of markets/greed and fear/stock market prediction/promoters dubious/india inc numbers/future outlook/when to buy/bank nifty looks good/dead-dud stocks stunning valuations/reason for gwalior chemical upmove and is it a buy?/what is bull market and bear market?/benzamin graham/indian stock market related books/small and midcap picks/how to be a crorepati from investing in stock markets/newbie in indian stock markets]


Markets outlook:As feared by me earlier markets have come down heavily.In the past, markets fell and bounced back. But such bounce back was possible due to some strong positive news. However, this time, there may not be any strong positive triggers as there is nothing great about Q4 show Indian Inc. Infact,this time, bull-run may turn out to be bull-shit. Why everyone clamours for indices to keep on rising everyday?Firstly, promoters are biggest beneciairies as they can raise more and more money(although they dont need even quarter of it) at unjustified/exaggerated prices. Secondly, in bull market, even iron cauldron will sell for price of silver and thousands of operators/manipulators have their business running only in mindless bull run as only during such frenzy, even dud/dead stocks (where companies are closed with nil assets or hardly any business)can fly sky high and operators/promoters can make a killing by such zero-value stocks at very very high prices to gullible/illiterate investors byspreading lies.

I feel that if markets again go on fire, it is not good for retail investors at last bcoz higher the markets go unjustifiably (without proportionately stronger results), higher vl be volaitility as Ponzi game of greater fool theory cant go on incessantly. If markets stabilize at reasonable levels, then genuine stocks with inherent value will do well. And, there will come skill of analysts to pick gems in a calm markets. It is the easiest thing to create hype about any scrip in frenzied markets. Incalm market, all manipulators/operators will be out of business which the best thing that can happen for retail investors. .

My recommendations in midcap and smallcap segment : Majority of companies have already reported or will report good results. Once panic in market is over, my scrips should resume upward march. STAY INVESTED..




[analysis of sectors like IT/automobile/textile/power/real estate/telecom/power equipments/pharma/best picks from these sectors/input cost problems/future and prospects of these sectors/which to outperform/which sector to sell and go short on/sectors to bet on and sectors to dump/strong rupee effect/rising crude price huring sentiments/when well inflation come down/upa government to fall/paper industry can do well/prospects of fertilizer companies/


Analysis of some important sectors in short:-

1. IT Sector: Due to strong rupee, earnings growth of IT companies has slowed down and hence, leading IT scrips have been underperforming.But at present dollar has given a strong bounce and more bounce is in the offing, hence huge releif for the sector.

2. Automobile sector: This sector is already witnessing slowdown in growth. Further, rising metal prices will not allow big profit growth and hence, vauations of this sector are not compelling anymore. Further, no sharp growth is expected in this sector for next 1-2 years at least.

3. Textile Industry: This sector is passing thruough one of the worst times. Even if Govt doles out any benefits, it wont lead to significant improvement in its dire position. In fact, textile industry may post dismal results for next 2-3 quarters.

4). Power sector: This sector has witnessed never-before ( and i pray never-again) hype which led to mindless valuations.But most of the scrips have been battered and at present valuations look compelling.

6. Telecom sector: Yes this sector continues to exhibit big growth. But companies at PE Ratio of 40-60 are not screaming buy

7. Power equipment industry: Valuations of this sector still appear to be attractive (comparatively)



Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at:arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

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