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Sunday, August 24, 2008

Market outlook and a solid story

Market outlook:-The commencement of a major correction in oil and related commodities will bring much awaited relief to our markets. It should mean sustained relative outperformance for India and asia in a global emerging market context.However the bootom may have not formed yet.Fii"s are prefering India over China in oil softening scenario. They beleive that government should maintain the current interest rate scenario, and would overkill the growth if any rate hike done from the current levels to tame inflation.Inflation figures will continue to haunt people till it moves down there shouldnt be any heigthned activity in the markets.Its certainly a big concern and market wont be having any jolly ride until the same cools down.I remain underwight on Commodities,Cyclicals and interest rate sensitive stocks.Markets seem hesitant to move beyond 15200.Keep buying quality business without going gung-ho-Still there are enough oppurtunities in the market to make a pot of money over the longer run.The trend for the past 2 months has been shaky.Hence, this is not a good time to make exit from the stocks.Long-term investors should continue to own suggested stocks,sooner or later there ineherent strong fundamentals would speak for them.Some banking and real estate stocks fell the most and I continue to remain circumpspect about both the sectors.


Scripscan:Kabra Extrusion Technik Ltd
Cmp:113
Traded in:Nse-bse

Story:Kabra EXtrusiontechnik is a Mumbai-based manufacturer of extrusion machinery used in plastic processing. The company is the market leader in India in this type of machinery and has grown steadily over the past five years. Given the rising consumption of plastic in India , the company has healthy growth prospects.The company caters to the capital goods sector by manufacturing plastic extrusion machinery that produces a wide range of plastic pipes. In case of (polyvinyl chloride) PVC polymer, pipe manufacturing accounts for nearly 40% of the total plastic demand in the country. As a result, pipe extrusion machinery is one of the largest segments in the plastic machinery industry. KEL recently started manufacturing machinery to produce plastic films such as multi-layer blown film (MLF), which is used in the packaging industry. The company derives nearly 35% of its revenue from exports and plans to increase that to 50% over the next couple of years.It enjoys a technological edge, thanks to its tie-up with Battenfield Extrusiontechnik, Germany , and Maplan Corporation, USA, which are global leaders in extrusion machinery and together hold 14% equity stake in KEL.The extrusion machinery industry, being linked to plastic consumption, has significant growth potential. The consumption of PVC pipes has been growing in double digits, since such pipes are increasingly used for drinking water and sewage applications, apart from the traditional irrigation and agriculture. Similarly, demand for high density polyethylene (HDPE) pipes is growing in telecom ducting, water supply, irrigation, fuel gas distribution etc.KEL’s net sales have witnessed a cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%, while its profit has recorded a CAGR of 25.5%.KEL is debt-free and cash-rich and has paid dividends for the past 10years.KEL’s current market capitalisation is Rs 91 crore. The company has investments in listed equity worth Rs 20 crore and owns mutual fund units worth Rs 9 crore. Both these investments contribute Rs 36 per share to its current market price of Rs 113.Thus, the company’s core business is available at just Rs 77 per share — below its book value of Rs 83 — which translates into a price-earnings (P/E) multiple of 3.8 based on earnings for the past 12 months. In view of the company’s stable growth prospects, low valuations and healthy dividend yield, longterm investors can consider this stock.
Source:ETIG

Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at:-arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

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