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Saturday, August 16, 2008

Segregate the men from the spoilt boys

1) Due to falling crude prices, markets have gone up. However, it should be considered as a relief rally. If, crude stays above 100 dollars, Indian Economy will suffer heavily. Q1 trade deficit is USD 31 billion which is alarming. It is very difficult to predict future pattern of crude prices. However, we feel that neither it may go up very sharply nor it may come down heavily. Reason is that, high prices mean lower demand and increase in energy generation from other sources like solar/wind/water. Prices may not fall sharply because Opec can reduce the production.

2) Donear Ind.(Rs. 2/- F.V., Rs. 53/-):Company has reported loss in Q1. Earlier, company used to report big profits. Does it mean that earlier company was showing profits from treasury operations? This small textile company is overpriced. Sell and buy J.B. Chemicals for higher appreciation.

3) Raymond Ltd.(Rs. 230/-):Company has reported huge loss of 40 crs. in Q1 although, it is the leading brand in India. Clearly, promoters are not bothered about minority shareholders. Chances of share price going up sharply are bleak. Sell and buy Rain Commodities for sure shot appreciation.

4) Aarvee Denim (Rs. 75/-): Company has made loss of 4 crs. in Q1. Due to excess supply, fortunes of Denim Ind. will not revive in near future. Scrip is overpriced. Sell and buy Visaka Ind. in its place.

5) Revathi Equipment (Rs. 960/-): In Q1, PAT has crashed to 65 lakhs as against 3.15 cr.last year.Performance is very erratic. Sell and re-enter later at lower levels.

6) RTS Power (Rs. 155/-): Company had gone for expansion and operates in high growth Ind. but, turnover continues to stagnate. Promoters appear to be very inefficient. Q1 PAT is just 94 lakhs. Share price can come down sharply. Sell and buy Hyderabad Ind. in its place which can report EPS of 70 in current year.

7) Gammon Infrastructure (Rs. 120/-): This is another company which looted public by coming out with overpriced IPO, taking advantage of booming market. Q1 PAT is just 10crs. on huge equity of 144 crs. Share price may continue to stagnate. Sell and buy Hind Dorr Oliver in its place.


Regards,
ARUN
I may be reached at-arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

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