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Thursday, November 13, 2008

Market outlook&Apollo hospitals

Global markets are going through turmoil of enormous proportions. Large amount of shares are changing hands everyday with extreme price volatility. On one side we have Mutual fund and Hedge fund as sellers who face redemption and needs to get out of markets soon and on the other side are the traders who earlier went short and want to lock in their profits by reversing their positions or long term investors who appear on the scene when they perceive a bargain.Take an example of US markets. While we were closed on Thursday, US markets fell shapely on their Wednesday session and for most part of Thursdays markets, albeit to recover all its losses in the last few hours of trading. From Tuesdays close to Thursdays low Nasdaq was down almost 10%and Dow almost 8%. In two hours of the trade yesterday, they surged back 12% and 10% respectively. To put these numbers in perspective, US market first lost as much market cap as Indias size of Economy and recovered more than that by the closing. The reverse is likely to happen in our markets, we may open higher with the world markets, but sustaining opening gains looks daunting. 10300 is the resistance now, on our way up and 9300 and 9000 are the supports for the Sensex.


Scripscan:Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd
Cmp:400
Traded in:Nse-Bse

Story:The blog remained inactive for last few days owing to my few company and analyst meet.Am a learner of the game so in no ways I should considered as an analyst or any market expert.In a nutshell, a common kid who is very passionate about something which he beleives would make living for several youths in the months and years and come.Now few days ago I went on to have a visit to "Apollo Hospitals",It wasnt any company or any analyst meet,just went to have a vigil about the "chennai craze".Often in my notes, I have penned logic which resembled the great 'Peter lynch' and his simple way of stock picking.Apollo hospital would have been a perfect lynch"s pick if he were to opt for any Indian scrip.So much of crowd,a long queue,with people coming incessantly from differnt parts of the world.I compared the scenario with the retail sector and bang,Apollo instantly made it in my top future 'asset" list.To elaborate, retail malls in bad times like the present ones hardly find any consumer, even in good times 75% of the total mall public are couples,they have come to romance there rather than shopping.But as far apollo is concerned,its just like a temple to the patients,they worships the doctors there.Chennai has many more hospitals,"Ramchandran,Shankar netralay" to name a few but they would come nowhere close to Applo"s brand imade or popularity.So no recession effect,no drop in number of patients,good consistent company with a strong pedigree team backed by Mr Pratap reddy,the great visionary man.People would fall ill every now and then and apollo due to its brand image and high sucess rate would always find itself among their top priority list.These company hasnt got a pan india presence and am sure they would have the same going forward.That should catapult the company in the top global league.Apollo Hospital also has value-unlocking opportunities via partial divestment of the retail pharmacy division.It is a leading pharmacy chain with 600-plus retail stores;the hospital management also has plans to ramp up to 1,000-plus stores by FY09-end.I estimate that the standalone pharmacy division can generate sales of around Rs 400 crore by FY10 (nearly 20% of total revenues).Apollo Hospitals trades at 8.7.x FY10 (and 8.1x, excluding pharmacy value),even as the company is strongly poised to grow at 31% CAGR based on the planned addition in bed capacity.So folks here is one asset for the taking.Gather and accumalte it with your heart"s content.A great safe bet.


Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at:arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

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