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Sunday, January 25, 2009

After darkness comes daylight

Please go through line by line with rapt attention.Hope after reading the same you would get a lot of clarity and that may just act as a confidence booster proving better for yourself as well as your portfolio.

Markets and what lies forward:-Without delay lets look at the positive things rather than discussing about the known bad ones.Confidence and conviction are the main and major things that make a disciplined investor.Fine enough bad days would be there but be rest assured if you are upto the task,succes is ought to come to your way.I am penning down a list and its bound to add some solace.

1)We are nearly over with a 13 months full-fledged bear market stuff and worst seem to be over as of now.

2)In previous bear markets we were not what we are today.India presently is a force to reckon with several investors and players from different countries taking it more seriously than ever.Once the market stabelises the money should find its place in our markets.

3)Valuation wise we are nearly in single digit level(1 year forward) these phenomenon has never been seen before.Sensex on an average quotes at 11-12 PE in a bear market.So we are already below there.

4)Majority of the counters are quoting at ridiculius levels with their PEs langishing at 1-2 levels.This was last seen in 2001-2002 and after that we all know what happned.

5)We are living in a global village where any bad news get counted to each and every markets.We are falling because of the same reason that other countries are falling for some reasons.Its day after night and markets too are no exception to that.

6)In many counters dividend yield have reached to an amazing level of 7-8%.Forget fixed deposits dividend being tax free should attract lot more of investor interest once the market resumes its upward journey.

7)You need to understand one thing folks,countries may fall,bing banks may go bankrupt but there would be host of companies who would continue to grow by 70-100% on a CAGR basis.They too have fallen because of the crash,once the nervousness gets over they would rock bigtime.Be rest assured whatever counter have been suggested all comes with a sound pedigree team and great business model with super growth prospctes.In the long run only sky is the limit for them.

8)10 to 100 is 1000% return but 100 to 10 is just 90% fall.How about that?Ever thought about it?Yes 1000% return and 90% wealth erosion cancells each other.There are so many scrips which have fellen by over 90%,so to reach their high they would need to move up 1000% or 10 fold,thats mamoth.But again that would happen for sure over the longer run.So even if you have lost 5 lakhs from your 10 lakhs portfolio think what can be done with that remaining 5 lakhs.In the longer run(3-5 years) that may just fructify to 50 lakhs.It sounds odd at the first ago but not surely after I have clarified right?So my esteemd members find oppurtunity on threats.Bear market is not something to run away from,see it,feel and experience at the end of the day even you know the money is all yours for the taking.

Regards,
ARUN
I can be reached at:arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

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