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Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Maytas Infra:-The probable multibagger

Many of you repeatedly in my mail have asked for paid calls and what they will be and all.Now as an amateur and being a social guy I would always safeguard the vested interest of investors than something else.The open blog is a place for me to give guidance..paid blog is for the one who needs those calls and my bigtime guidance desperately.Anyways here"s an example of a paid member call and the type which I provided just few days back.I provide market outlook too which was given as mentioned below.


Saturday, March 28, 2009
Coming week outlook-Stock idea:-Maytas infra

The Nifty broke through the resistance at 3050 to close at 3108. This is the highest closing registered by the Nifty in the past six months. This rally has seen the Nifty putting on 22.41%, a mark that can’t be just frittered away.We had seen a larger rally in October-November 2008, when the Nifty jumped 28.15% when it zoomed from 2525 to 3240 in just 7 sessions, with both the bottom and top days being counted. The current rally is slow by those standards, taking 14 sessions, double the time, to cover 3/4th of the distance.This makes the rally better than the earlier one as there have been consolidation all along. So if the level of 3240 is taken out, we will have made a higher top. Coming on the back of a near double bottom formation (2525 on October 27, 2008 and 2539 on the 6th of March 2009) with a little more than 5 months separating the two bottoms, this rally seems to have legs.Internationally, the only thing worrying is that after the G20 meeting scheduled for April 2nd, there is unlikely to be any meaningful follow up action by the member countries, as so much has already been committed. That may act as a dampener and slow down the momentum.This get-together may also bring to the fore the smouldering issue of trade barriers. If countries erect more fences to protect their local economies, it may further slow the already evaporating global trade.Another anecdotal worry is that JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis, who indicated in interviews with a business channel earlier this week that this month hasn't been as strong as January and February.You folks will recall that the post Holi rally that we saw in the global markets was essentially led by the comments by Citi and JP Morgan that January and February months have been profitable.Should we read more into this insight or let it pass as an aberration, that can’t be said at this time. But it needs to be kept in mind. Buying the dips in the current rally has paid off so far and I believe it could pay in the future as well. But it will be criminal to allow these profits to vanish, so some form of profit protection either by way of partial booking or using a trailing stop loss would be of help, should things worsen.I on my part, believe that those who have missed the earlier bus, may buy the dips now.


Scripscan:Maytas Infra Ltd
cmp:34
Target:70
Percentage:105%
Duration:6-9 months
Traded in:nse-bse
Risk involved:High risk

Story:At these juncture I get a feeling maytas infra may well be a doubler from these levels.Though the risk is high and investors only with a high risk penchant should go for these company.In simple words let me pen down why maytas is worth looking at the present levels.

1)Satyam valued it nearly 3000crs when it announced to acquire maytas infra and maytas properties.Present market cap is barely 180 idd crs.Not many people would be aware but it would be prudent to note that Maytas also holds a 19.20%stake in Gautami which has completed the setting up of the 464MW power project that will go into operation when it begins to get KG Basin gas next month.

2)Scrip fell from 750 to the present levels of 34rs.Over 95% has been eroded and most of the investors who had to exit are gone now.Risk takers like myself are getting good fancy here.At 180crs we are getting the prestigeous hyderbad metro project owner.

3)Maytas does not have many liabilities on its books, as the company had spun off special purpose vehicles (SPVs) for different projects. There are over 50 SPVs as the company had won at least 62 contracts in various sectors. Looking at its order book, any new promoter will have a ready business for the next few years.

4)Maytas also invested Rs209 crore as an equity partner in various power and infrastructure projects. This investment itself is valued at around Rs35 per share.These 209 crores is worth over 1000crores now if I consider the valuations of gvk power,mundra port and all.

5)Various institutions and banks have lent nearly Rs5,000 crore to Maytas.Now they wont sit and just fag.They would make sure that they remains safe.The only way for them to recover their money is to ensure that Maytas completes the projects in hand in the stipulated time.I foresee immense chances of a new management and promoter taking the charge of the company.In case that happens be rest assured it would cross my target comfortably and may even hit a 3 figure mark in the long run.So investors with risk apetite buy the scrip at present levels and dips.

Regards,
ARUN
9804589299
I can be reached at:arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

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