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Thursday, July 2, 2009

Balrampur Chini Mills and Siemens Ltd:-Future growth prospects and outlook

1)Scripscan:Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd
cmp:109
Traded in:Nse-bse

Story:Balrampur Chini, the best play on rising sugar prices, beat my expectation for March ''09Q by 27% owing to: (1) lower cost, and (2) higher cogen tariff. The company seems to have left its bad time finally.Future growth drivers for further upsides are: 1) 11% higher EBITDA in FY10E driven by rising sugar prices and 2) lower net debt driven by higher profit and inventory reduction. Sugar price outlook has risen further following: 1) additional 7% cut in production estimate for the current season in the last one month, and 2) sharper rise in cost of imported sugar. Balrampur Chini is to benefit from a 40% decline in cost of production excluding the cost of cane owing to: 1) 10% increase in sugar recovery from cane; and 2) over 24% rise in crushed cane. There could be an additional 20% profit from: 1)30% increase in cogen tariff and 2) refinement of additional 50-80 million kg of raw sugar, raising overall sugar output by 10%. Balrampur benefitted from a 30% additional price for cogen during March-May ''09 period as part of a new government initiative. Balrampur may refine imported raw sugar next season in its existing facilities if raw sugar refining remains profitable. Threat of imported sugar driven by liberal government policy has lessened, following sharp rise in international sugar price.Given that supplies are much tighter within India, domestic sugar price is to outperform due to higher cost of imports.A great sugar bet at dips.

2)Scripscan:Siemens Ltd
cmp:490
Traded in:Nse-bse

Story:Siemens reported 11% topline growth versus expectation of 5% growth driven by strong revenue booking in the power segment which contributes 75% to its revenues.This is quite surprising given that the power segment has been under immense pressure across all T&D companies, as is evident from ABB India''s results.Adjusted EBITDA margins came in 14.1% versus 10.7% in 1QCY09. Margin surprise was driven again by the power segment where PBIT margins grew to 18.2%, the highest in the last six quarters. This could be possible as revenue contribution of some of the lower-margin export orders may have declined. Order book remains stagnant at Rs 9,700 crore which has been at similar levels in the last ten quarters. Order inflow for the quarter came in at Rs 1,860 crore, a 21% decline y-o-y. Siemens'' order inflow is dependent on exports - 40% of revenue would remain under pressure. In any case, am building in a revival in FY9/10 with 11% revenue growth. The stock is trading at 25x FY9/10E earnings, in line with ABB''s multiples, despite very recent corporate governance issues where company sold off extremely profitable units to the parent company at questionable valuations. Moreover, it also takes some large orders directly in the parent company.I would suggest a switch from siemens to a larsen or an ABB for superior returns to that of siemens.

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