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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Everest Kanto Cylinder:Buy,hold or sell?

Scripscan:Everest Kanto Cylinder
Traded in:Nse-bse

Story:I retains my positive fundamental bias and `Buy rating on Everest Kanto Cylinder (EKC) for investors looking at key long-term beneficiaries of the gas theme in India. However, the company may not perform much in the short to medium term. EKC"ss Q4 PAT of Rs 27.8 crore was flat y-o-y and well below estimates. The slowdown in demand from OEMs, though cyclical in nature, has taken its toll on revenues and margins. With Q4 weakness likely to spill over into the next couple of quarters, combined with delays in the jumbo (1Q), billet (2Q), and Kandla (3Q) plants, A big brokerage house has cut its FY10-11E earning estimate by 33-35%. While these issues may constrain near-term stock performance, the cycle should correct in H2 as economic activity improves and domestic demand from gas distribution companies picks up. Q4 EBITDA margin of 21% was down from 34% in 9M due to: (i) higher proportion of industrial sales (45% in 9M versus 62% in Q4) as CNG sales to OEMs were impacted and (ii) price cuts on CNG cylinders due to rising competition despite RM (raw material) costs not declining.Buy it only for 2-3 years perespective.

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