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Friday, September 11, 2009

Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd and Gujarat NRE Coke:Future growth prospects and outlook

1)Scripscan:Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd

Story:IndiaÂ’s third-largest sugar company is likely to see 69% y-o-y earnings growth in the next four quarters based on: 1) sugar prices rising 67% in the last year; 2) sale of low-cost inventory - about 48% of total sales volume - in FY09E High-margin and low-capital engineering business gave Triveni stable cash flows and better return ratios than peers in the last sugar cycle downturn. HSBC expects its average return ratios (FY09E-10E RoE of 20%, RoIC (return on invested capital of 17%) to be better than Bajaj Hindusthan (5% and 6%) and Balrampur Chini Mills (17% and 13%). Triveni (PE of 13x, PB (price to book value) of 2.1x and EV/EBITDA of 6.4x) is trading cheaper than its peers, Bajaj Hindusthan (PE of 57x; PB of 3.3x; EV/EBITDA of 10.8x) and Balrampur Chini (PE of 14.8x; PB of 2x; EV/EBITDA of 7.3x) on FY10E multiples.The risk on the downside is lower than forecast sugar prices.A good buy at dips.

2)Scripscan:Gujarat NRE Coke Ltd

Story:I have raised mycoking coal price forecast by 17% for FY11, buoyed by China turning a net importer of coking coal and a possible restart of steel capacity globally. The recent settlement of coking coal at $129/t was surprisingly strong, as the expectation was for around $100-110. More so, the remainder of coking coal quantities left from last yearÂ’s contract at $300 has not been waived off. GNC owns two coking coal mines in Australia, with 580-million tonne reserves and a current mine coal production of 1 million tonnes. GNC has augmented its coke capacity by 25% to 1.25 million tonnes. GNC remains the best stock in which to invest to take advantage of the upturn in the coking coal cycle. GNC has good quality reserves, an excellent location and is well on its way to become one of the worldÂ’s top-ten producers of prime hard coking coal in the next three years.A superb asset for a period of 8-10 years.

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