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Monday, October 26, 2009

Man Industries India Ltd and Tata Communications ltd:Future growth potential and analysis/recomendation and outlook

1)Scripscan:Man Industries India Ltd

Story:Man Industries, a part of the UK-based MAN group, should now start seeing meaningful contribution from the 400,000-tpa HSAW capacity added over the past two years. The company has put on hold its planned 300,000-tpa HSAW mill in the US.Currently, around 55% of total sales come from exports.The company is also focussing on the growing domestic market given the huge demand potential on the back of a trebling of gas supplies. Its Anjar facility is located close to the Mundra and Kandla ports enhancing export competitiveness.MAN currently has orders worth Rs 2,500 crore to be executed in the next 12–15 months, mostly for export. It is in discussions for orders worth $1bn. MAN has no plans for backward integration unlike some of its competitors .Also, it wants to keep a standard technology platform (SAW) rather than diversify into other segments (such as seamless pipes). The global demand outlook for SAW pipes is very strong, and MAN is likely to benefit from the large global and growing domestic demand.Considering all these points,its a great buy at dips.

2)Scripscan:Tata Communications

Story:Tata Communications could be exited for a price target of 425rs. The price target is based on: (i) Core business valued in September 2009E at Rs 210 (ii) NAV of land raised to Rs 165 and (iii) TCOM’s 10% stake in Tata Teleservices (TTSL) reduces to Rs50/sh.While TCOM’s international business is delivering, A big broekrage house also maintains the `Sell’ rating given its rich valuations with a FY10E target EV/EBITDA of 7.1x and relatively high leverage with FY10E net debt/EBITDA of 3.5x (ex-WiMax spectrum bidding).Meanwhile, execution remains on track with TGN-Eurasia coming onstream. As a result,I estimate FY09E-12 E EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 21%.The big broekrage house values Tata Communications’ land holdings at a 30% discount to NAV.Faster-than-expected monetisation of land and sale of the remaining TTSL stake are the upside risks, while aggressive WiMax bids, and high competition in the wholesale business, will likely constrain valuations.

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