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Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd:Future growth outlook and prospects,analysis,buy/sell/hold,recomendation

Scripscan:Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Ltd

Story:Dewan Housing is also seeking to grow faster. It has been in the business of housing finance for more than a one and a half decade and acquired the housing finance business of ING Vysya Bank in 2003. It is also expanding its branch network aggressively.Dewan Housing Finance Corporation is a player in the middle and lower income group and the average ticket size is also smaller. Over time they have proved among the fastest growing housing finance company and they have grown at a clipping pace whether you are talking of their loan book or their disbursements. At 35% plus so here you have a company which you can really value on the fact that their core business is doing well. Their NPA has stayed within lower, largely of the fact that they are lending to people who are actually going to live in those houses so that kind of de-risk them. They have a presence in a lot of places which again they are taking up. There may be a slight issue on the kind of debt that they have and there again they are working on that to raise capital so this is a stock that I like. When you value the stock you should also look at the investment that they have in HDIL and some of the other group company.DHFL has been amongst the fastest growing HFC in the last five years – its loan book and disbursements have registered a CAGR of 39% and 37%, respectively (significantly above peers) over FY04-09. I expect disbursements and loan book to register a CAGR of 25% and 27%, over the next two years.DHFL offers a strong combination of value and growth.I expect earnings to grow at a CAGR of 29% over FY10-11. I expect RoA to sustain at 1.7% and RoE to improve from 21% in FY09 to 25% by FY11. Adjusting for the value of key investments, post 20% discount (Rs 22/share), the stock trades at at cheap valuations.Investors can buy with an SOTP-based target price of Rs 200rs.

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