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Note: The artciles are not research reports but assimilation of information available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

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Thursday, December 17, 2009

Bharat Forge Ltd:Buy/sell/hold,growth prospects and recomendation,news and results,target price and analysis

Scripscan:Bharat Forge Ltd
Code: 500493
cmp:260

Story:Bharat Forge Limited (BFL), the flagship company of the USD 2.4 billion Kalyani Group, manufactures various forged and machined components for the automotive and non-automotive sector.Since commencement of operations in 1966, BFL has achieved several milestones and is today among the largest and technologically most advanced manufacturer of Forged & Machined components. As one of India’s emerging multinationals, the company has manufacturing operations across 12 locations and 6 countries - 4 in India, 3 in Germany, one each in Sweden, Scotland, USA & 2 in China.Its customers include the top five Passenger Car & top five Commercial Vehicle Manufacturers in the world. The list includes virtually every automotive OEM and Tier I companies.Even though its production level is 40% lower than the previous level, Bharat Forge is witnessing steady demand improvement. Significantly, Bharat Forge's standalone EBITDA margin has recovered to its historical level of 24% even at these lower production levels.The steady recovery in commercial vehicle demand and good passenger vehicle demand has resulted in Bharat Forge's revenue growing 19.2% quarter-on-quarter. Production tonnage has steadily improved - from a low of 18,246 in 4QFY09 to 28,000-30,000 in 2QFY10. While this level is 40% below the previous peaks, further improvement in CV demand could drive a production rampup.Furthermore, despite lower production levels, the company's efforts to lower its breakeven point and its sustained efforts at cost reduction have helped it regain its past normalised EBITDA margin of 24%.As regards valuation, Bharat Forge has yet to disclose its consolidated results for 2Q.I maintain a Buy and re-iterate Bharat Forge as my top pick in the sector.

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