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Monday, December 7, 2009

Dubai downfall and impact,market outlook for tuesday

WHAT AILS DUBAI? AND WHY SHOULD WE CARE?

ans)In order to transform its economy as a major tourist and financial hub, Dubai borrowed US$80bn. However, it suffered a massive property slump in last year’s credit crisis. Now, it is not able to repay its liabilities, and asking borrowers to postpone repayments.There were 53 lakh Indians in the Gulf, of which 31% were in the UAE, mostly employed by construction sector for Dubai’s real estate boom. The Gulf region accounts for over half the total inward remittances worth over USD 25 billion annually from expatriate Indians, out of which 10% of overall remittances to India could be from construction workers.If Dubai were to default, there would be repercussion in other parts of world, where banking would take a hit from lending to Dubai. Though the overall size of the liabilities are not very big compared to US banking problems, this could be a taken as an excuse for the markets to correct at lower levels. Conserve your fire-ammunition for better levels.


Market outlook:US markets closed absolutely flat after yo-yoing between positive and negative territory as investors took away a mixed message from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernake's reiteration that the economic recovery remains fragile. Japanese government has announced a $274 billion package, much larger than market expectations. Canadian central bank will announce its interest rate decision later tonight and it will pay to give attention to that decision. Whether like Australia, this resource rich nation is bitting the bullet or they are still sanguine about prospects of inflation. Back home, yesterday's trading session was marked by sell-off in Metal and Real Estate Stocks. FIIs were net sellers to the tune of 557 cr. in index futures and 439 cr. in stock futures.After yesterday's down move Sensex has moved further away from the 17300 mark, a close above which is required to put the market in a bullish orbit. Sensex has briefly closed above it's 20 day moving average, which stands at 16964, a decisive breach of which will take the benchmark to the next support of around 16600. Both the hotel duos in F & O, Hotel Leela and Indian Hotel, have seen long build up in futures along with GSPL, Suzlon, Orchid and KFA and can be looked at for taking long positions with appropriate stop losses.

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