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Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Its all yours

Guessing part 2:-

Most of you guys are lovely guessers.So am posting the same note(excluding the name and few aspects) if assumed correctly its all yours.

I had a long 4 hour face to face interaction with the CEO and this is what the outcomes look like:-

1)Their sales was 56cr in 08-09,would be 80crs in 09-10,200crs in fy10-11,350crs in fy11-12 and above 500crs for the next fiscal.The NPM would varry in the range of 8-20% for their verticals.So 10%-12% npm we can expect on an average which would transalate into an EPS of 11.5-14 for 2012-13.Now since stock market is a place which discounts future it should quote at 3 figures in 2011-12 taking forward PE of 9-7 conservatively.

2)I and my group owns over 2 million shares in the counter and am in talks with big guys who are interested in this counter.

3)There are further few things which if understood can give a world of confidence and conviction in the counter.Like they are doing "something" to the same guys who were the land owners for that "something".Those guys would never sell the shares of the company until they get a minimium price of 100bucks.Now the land rates are around 1400 per square ft there.1 acre is 43560 sq ft.. so the land value itself comes to 152crs which is over three and a half times superior to the present market cap of the company.

4)The company can be a 30 odd marketcap counter but it has got an order book position of around 1200crs.Order execution the main threat is actually not a problem here as the company plans to pass the orders to other vendors for executing their projects.Its like you bag your contracts through your rich contacts charge a decent enuf margin and pass the same to other vendors at half the margin of that.The CEO is a very influential and visionary guy with huge powerful contacts.This guy works from morning 5 to 12.30 at night.To make the board stronger he is making a padamsree guy joining the board.

5)You may notice "xyz" being in the "something" for huge selling from a particular company named "zxy".Its a company of MR "gka" who was the erstwhile owner of "ywz",he was told to exit the company and thus he offloaded all his shares in the market.Weaker hands gone out and I and my group bought his quantity.

6)The counter has made an acqusition of "something" for zero bucks.They hope to bag orders from riyadh airport for handling and maintaince.If everything goes right this high margin vertical would contribute 100crs topline in the coming few years.

7)Its about to bag a big order from andhra cement for captive power plans.It would be a huge contract with time spanning a period of 20-30years.

8)A press conference is soon round the corner in mumbai,CEO plans to make Mr Vilas rao desmukh as the cheif guest.A couple of deals can be signed infront of him.

9)"aaa" operations are nearly stopped,even our counter has returned all their offices and stuff to them.Its a great sign of a strong aggresive visionary entreprenur which fascinated me the most.

10)Its the CEO himself who called me and fixed the appointment with myself.Before that I hardly had any idea about this company.After our dialogues am a proud shareholder of the company and hopes to be with it for the next 3-4 years.Am in active touch with the management and thats helping my cause a great deal.Cheers.

Regards,
ARUN
9804589299
I can be reached at:arunanalyst@rediffmail.com

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