Get Magazines for free

Categories

10000 to 4crs in 18 months 1000rs to 50crs 300% returns 75% promoter holdings A 50 bagger A sureshot 5 bagger Analysis Another fraud? Auto ancillaries Bank sector Blind sell Brand plays Broking Bse Nse Buy calls cements Ceramics/tiles Counters I don't like Debt free businesses Delisting candidates demerger bets Disclosure- I own them Domestic consumption plays E-Commerce pick Education Exit at rallies Famous analysts Famous stocks FMCG Footwear future multibaggers Gems andJewellery Hidden gems High conviction ideas High dividend plays High potential small caps High ROE stocks Holding companies Hotel sector How they looted you.. Indian stock market Infrastructure sector Interesting Microcaps IT KPO Landbank plays largecap ideas Less than 5 PE stocks Liquor Logistics Market lessons Market outlook for 2013 and 2014 Market underperformers Meeting with the CEO Metals Monopoly businesses My 5 baggers My Favourite counters My paid stock recommendations My stock picking techniques nse bse tips Oil exploration Operator calls Paints Penny stock outlook penny stock updates Pharma sector Poultry stocks PSU Publicity freaks Real estate Renewable energy plays Safe bets Sell recommendations Share market Live shipping stocks short term call SOTP plays stock tips stock under 10rs Stocks to watch out for Strong bonus candidates Takeover candidates TATA product tea Textiles The 13 bagger The 45 bagger Trading companies Transformers Turnaround bets Tyres Uncertain/Risky business models Unique businesses

Search This Blog(Over 800 companies covered in the blog).

Please note

Note: The artciles are not research reports but assimilation of information available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that I might have the dkiscussed companies in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased.Readers should consult registered consultants before making any investments
.

Archives : Old artciles

Sunday, December 25, 2011

Reliance Industries Ltd:-Buy/sell/growth prospects and recommendation,news and results,target and analysis,view and outlook,multibagger

Scripscan:Reliance Industries Ltd
cmp:740
Code:500325

Story:Reliance Industries Limited (RIL)’s current price adequately captures the KG-D6 volume concerns and as also company’s spat with the oil regulator on cost recovery from its KG-D6 basin.I have moderated RIL’s KG-D6 volumes to 41mmscmd in FY12 from 47mmscmd earlier and assumed the same volume for FY13E-FY14E period.However, real risk of reserve potential in KG-D6 basin poses concern for the company which I believe has been priced in given the subdued performance of the stock since the beginning of the decline in its output last year. Even if the regulator disallows the reported $1.2bn cost recovered by the RIL, the value destruction from the same comes out at Rs 16/share while the stock has corrected Rs 40/share till date post arbitration notice announced on 28th Nov’11.Since around 60% of RIL’s revenue is export oriented and product prices are market driven denominated in dollar terms, depreciating rupee will be beneficial for the company. In this regard,I worked out exchange rate sensitivity on RIL’s earnings and valuation and found that with every Rs 1 change in exchange rate, my EPS estimate for FY13E and TP changes by Rs 2 and Rs 42 respectively. At current exchange rate of 52, EPS estimate for FY13E comes out to Rs 81 with target price of Rs 1093/share. However, for Apr-Nov’11 period, USDINR exchange rate averaged at 46.45 and I assumed exchange rate of 46 during FY12E-FY14E period. At base case exchange rate of 46, EPS for FY13E stood at Rs 67.At CMP of Rs 740, the stock is trading at P/E and EV/EBITDA of 10.9x and 6.2x FY13E EPS and EBITDA of Rs 65 and Rs 403680mn respectively. The stock’s recent correction was on account of its controversies surrounded to its bejeweled KG-D6 block (falling gas output, capex spends, PSC drilling plans etc).I believe the correction on account of KG-D6 is overdone and at current levels there is limited downside risk in the stock.

Important Disclaimer&Privacy policy

This blog does not share personal information with third parties nor do we store any information about your visit to this blog other than to analyze and optimize your content and reading experience through the use of cookies.You can turn off the use of cookies at anytime by changing your specific browser settings.This privacy policy is subject to change without notice and was last updated on 20.3.2013. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me directly here: arunsharemarket@gmail.com Investment in equity shares has its own risks.Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective.The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that I consider reliable. I,however,do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof.This material is for personal information and am not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above.The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance.The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice.
 
x

Subscription to Arunthestocksguru

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner