Scripscan:NHPC Ltd
cmp:21
Code:533098
Story:NHPC reported 3QFY12 PAT of INR2.2b. Adjusted for several extraordinary/ exceptional items, PAT stood at INR2.7b (up 51% YoY), in-line with estimates.During 3QFY12, NHPC's (standalone) generation stood at 3.1BUs, up 2% YoY. Barring Loktak, all other NHPC projects reported degrowth in generation and average PLF stood at 38% v/s 37% YoY. Incentives income comprising of UI, Secondary Energy and PAF stood at INR770m v/s INR1.57b in 2QFY12 and INR1.8b in 1QFY12.NHPC has lowered its capacity addition targets for FY12 and FY13 to 313MW (v/s earlier guidance of 515MW) and 673MW (v/s 1.1GW earlier), respectively. It is facing (1) regulatory and administrative bottlenecks for some of its projects in J&K (Uri, Chutak , Nimoo Bazgoo) and Arunachal Pradesh (Subhansri Lower), and (2) environment issues at Kotle Bel. This, in our view, has further diminished visibility on capacity addition ramp-up, which is already delayed significantly. NHPC is also facing delays in receivables, and 33% of its debtors (i.e. INR9b) are 60 days old. The SEBs/discoms not paying NHPC on time include Punjab, Jaipur and Reliance Infrastructure, and account for 95% of the receivables over 60 days.I cut my FY12/FY13 estimates to factor in capacity delays, and expect NHPC to report PAT of INR17.2b in FY12 (down 1% YoY) and INR23b in FY13 (up 31% YoY). Stock trades at P/E of 13x FY12E and 10x FY13E, and P/BV of 0.9x (both years). Re-iterate Neutral.
Important Disclaimer&Privacy policy
This blog does not share personal information with third parties nor do we store any information about your visit to this blog other than to analyze and optimize your content and reading experience through the use of cookies.You can turn off the use of cookies at anytime by changing your specific browser settings.This privacy policy is subject to change without notice and was last updated on 20.3.2013. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me directly here: arunsharemarket@gmail.com
Investment in equity shares has its own risks.Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective.The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that I consider reliable. I,however,do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof.This material is for personal information and am not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above.The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance.The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice.
