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Friday, February 17, 2012

Ambuja Cements Ltd:Buy/sell/growth prospects and recommendation,news and results,target and analysis,view and outlook,multibagger

Scripscan:Ambuja Cements Ltd

Story:After posting disappointing performance during the first half of the previous calendar year, Holchim owned Ambuja Cement's performance turned around during the second half due to sharp improvement in realization and healthy volume growth.Cement volume sales rose 5% Y-o-Y (12% Q-o-Q) to 5.25 mn tonnes as demand in the company's key markets improved, while the realization improved 24% Y-o-Y (15% Q-o-Q) to Rs 4436 per tonne. Marked by improved realization primarily, the total revenue of the company in Q4CY11 rose 29% Y-o- Y (28.6% Q-o-Q) to Rs 23.58 bn.The company's management believes that the prices are expected to remain volatile in the short-term due to demand-supply imbalances, while the cost pressures on account of rising cost of energy, logistics and raw material may impact the margins. Expected policy reforms, lower inflation and interest rates and expectations of higher infrastructure investment (USD 1 trillion) in the 12th Five Year Plan is expected to boost the cement demand in CY12.The company has huge exposure in the western and the northern markets where the demand and realization is relatively stronger than in other regions.The company being the major cement producer in the western market, is well positioned to increase its volumes as the demand improves further. In view of the company's volume sales and realisation in Q4CY11 coming in better than expectations, One should expect net sales for CY12 at Rs 106.95 bn, however since there is continued pressure on margins due to high cost and since the Q4CY11 net profit were lower than estimates,EPS for CY12 should be around Rs.10.The company's key markets will continue to post healthy growth, most of these positives are already priced in the stock.

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