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Thursday, May 10, 2012

Lanco Infratech Ltd:Buy/sell/growth prospects and recommendation,news and results,target and analysis,view and outlook,multibagger

Scripscan:Lanco Infratech Ltd

Story:Lanco Infratech Limited engages in engineering, procurement and construction (EPC), power, solar energy, natural resources, infrastructure, and property development businesses primarily in India. It provides EPC services for thermal power projects, hydro power projects, chimneys, cooling towers and balance of plant, and transmission and distribution projects, as well as for roads, highways and bridges, metros and railways, buildings and airports, sea ports and marine structures, water and pipelines. The company also generates and trades power from thermal, hydro, wind, and solar sources; develops integrated properties comprising commercial and residential buildings; and explores, mines, and markets coal. It also operates in Australia, China, Indonesia, Nepal, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States.LITL`s stock has corrected by 80% over the past 12 months due to a lack of clarity on PPAs, fuel security issues, accounting policy changes, higher gearing and funding issues. Although these concerns have not all receded, a price correction has largely discounted them.I was recently reading a nomura report on it which has used a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology to arrive at a target price of Rs 30/share for Lanco (methodology unchanged).They have discounted FY12-14F free cash flows (effectively the FCF from existing order backlog) at 15.5% CoE to value the EPC/construction business, the power business using a milestone-adjusted FCFE valuation at 15.5% cost of equity, the power trading business at 7x FY12F P/E, the real estate business at a 30% discount to NAV calculated using 20% WACC, and toll roads using DCF at 15.5% cost of equity.On their FY13 earnings forecast for Lanco, the stock trades at 0.6x P/B and 4.1x P/E.I feel current valuations offer comfort and long term investors having a horizon of 3-4 years can safely enter the stock at present levels.

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