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Archives : Old artciles

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Tv Today network Ltd:-The next big wealth creator in making

Below penned are the couple of paid calls which were given to members a few months back.Both doing amazingly well.Also put is a fresh stock idea for my beloved readers.

1)Scripscan:Fluidomat ltd
Traded in:Bse
Cmp:68
Target:120
Return:75%
Duration:9-12 months

Strategy:The company is the only listed fluid coupling play in the bourses.A fluid coupling in a company is what an underwear(read page industries),lunch plates(Read La opala),pressure cookers,(read ttk and hawkins) is to us in our daily life.Company got a ROE of 30% with nearly a monopoly business.Management is sound and paid a sound dividend of 2.5rs this fiscal.Company has been very consistent on its numbers over the last several years.Fluidomat trades at a low single digit PE.Company is about to bag huge orders from Petronas which would take the company in the top global league.One of the very few companies which got a tremendous pricing power.Promoters stake have gone from 30% to nearly 53% in the last five years.Accumulate slowly for a 70-80% yearly return.Its kinda a safe compounder too.Company got all the potential to be a massive multibagger.At 30 crs marketcap its an amazing bargain.Personally I do own a heavy position in the stock.At some point of a time expect a research note on the counter.

2)Scripscan:Eicher motors ltd
Traded in:Nse-Bse
Cmp:4900
Target:6200
Return:25%
Duration:4-7 months

Strategy:The Royal Enfield maker is doing wonders in the bourses.A lot of HNI activity is slated to happen in the counter.Scrip is in very strong momentum.Though the price is bit high but stock market is a place where quality counters are often treated with abnormal valuations.I ain't bothered about its long term potential.But for someone looking to rake in cool moolah in a large cap masterpiece can consider it at present levels.




A high conviction bet for my beloved readers:-

Scripscan:Tv Today network Ltd
Traded in:Nse-bse
CMP:119
Target:10% in short term,20% in medium term and 40-60% in a year's time
Long term target:30-40% CAGR for coming 5 years

Note:AS you all are aware,through my VC vehicle I own the MOSL(Motilal oswal)franchise but never in my services have resorted to use their stock tips.The logic been simple-my unique way fits into the tiny micro cap category whereas MOSL only pens on known mid or large caps with yearly target return of 20-25% .Now for the first time a couple of things gonna happen.I am going to recommend a media stock assimilating mosl's research logic.Digitisation is certainly a windfall gains for broadcasters and hence don't want to miss the inevitable run in the scrips related to the sector.TV today at present prices is one heck of a medium bet.At 7x fy15 earnings,the company deserves a place in your portfolio.

About the company:TV Today Network Ltd is a company engaged in news broadcasting operations.The company is a part of India Today group and operates a network of TV news channels,namely Aaj Tak, Headlines Today,Tez and Dilli Aaj Tak.They are first Indian broadcaster to uplink from India, a 24 hour Hindu news channel.The company also has also made strategic investment worth Rs 45 Crore during FY12 in Mail Today Newspaper (Private) Limited, which publishes a news paper called Mail Today.The company has one subsidiary, namely TV Today Network (Business) Ltd.

Digitisation,a windfall gains for broadcasters:Broadcasters are likely to enjoy windfall gains as digital cable opens up the under declared pay-TV revenues. Digitisation will also ensure increase in cable capacity, which will lead to reduction in carriage cost paid by broadcasters to erstwhile analog cable oparators. The power of bargaining will shift from distribution networks to content. In such a scenario, we believe broadcasting networks will grow their profit at CAGR of 35-40% during FY13-FY17 just because of increase in subscription revenue, which will flow entirely to bottom line.

News Content's double whammy: News channels suffer double whammy as they need to pay high carriage fee on top of low subscription income as compared to General Entertainment Channels (GECs) to get their channels carried on analog networks. Carriage fee is the single largest cost item in P&L of news channels at ~30-35% of revenues. This has lead to financial bleeding of almost all news channels.Two of the three listed players are barely profitable and one is loss making for a long period of time. Digitisation will reduce the carriage fee, which will ensure better financial performance from news broadcasters.

TV Today Network, a turnaround:Surge in revenues with not much increase in associated cost will ensure a huge turnaround in operational performance of the company.The company will likely report life high profit at the end of FY14, which will also ensure RoE of ~20%.We expect revenues to grow at CAGR of 23% during FY13-15E vs 10% growth during FY06-13. This will lead to disproportionate growth in PAT at CAGR of 171% during FY13-15E vs PAT CAGR of -11% during FY06-13.

Numbers:Company reported 313crs of revenues in fy13 with PAT of 12crs.The same is set to inch up to 415crs and 69crs respectively in fy14.In fy15,company to post revenues of around 480crs on an expected PAT of 88-90crs.At around 12 times fy15,you get your target price.Company only commands a marketcap of 700 odd crs at present prices.

Valuations and View:TV Today is play on turnaround of news broadcasting business as well as general theme of digitization in media space. The stock offers attractive risk reward at ~9x FY14E EPS with ~4% dividend yield in FY14E. Historically , the company has traded at median PE of 21x and lowest PE of 9x since listing in FY04.Therefore, we believe there is a decent upside to stock in 1 year time frame even if we take 30% discount to median valuations.

My personal take:The company came with its IPO 11 years back at 95rs.Even the Sensex was at 3000 levels then.Sensex moved over 7 times,many companies became 100 baggers but TV today remained a laggard.As India  transitions to become the worlds fifth largest consumer market by 2025, its middle class will swell  by over ten times its current size of 50 million to 583  million people.We have the leading Hindi news channel in our hand which will benefit massively from that.Digitization would do wonders for the company.Not to forget the expected 4-5% dividend yield.Even on historical valuations its quoting at its lowest over a period of 10 years.Tv today as we all know owns channels like Aj Tak and headlines today.AJ tak brand is even superior to that of biggies like ICICI bank and HDFC bank.Company is terribly under owned inspite of all the multibagger ingredients.Present price offers a great chance to opt for the only recommended pure media play.Buy it for any term members.

Conclusion:High ROE+High Dividend Yield+Brand play+Hindi news market leader+Digitization+Nearly zero debt+Ethical visionary management+Under owned stock from a boring sector+A laggard for the last 11 years with no capital appreciation+Content Owner+High entry barriers+Amazingly cheap valuation+I own it too.Lolz ignore the last+.TV today over the next 8-10 years will create massive wealth for the shareholders.Go for it.


Btw:People looking for midcap/smallcap positional call professional service may rush a mail at my mail id arunsharemarket@gmail.com to know more about it.

60 comments:

vista consultants said...

hi,

long back you recommended jaibalaji industries

what is your view,do you still hold the earlier one

rgds
rajamani

Anonymous said...

Arun ji is there any specific reason why CHD devoloers is in buying spree • Read your detailed analysis on CHD devolopers• Any specific target

Anonymous said...

Dear Arunji,

Your view on dr.datsons lab i have got a call from my friend to buy for short term target of Rs.80/- and long term for Rs.200/-. CMP 49.65 can i buy at this level. pls advice

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun,

I wish to ask you about one of your recommendations, namely Hyderabad Industries. It has not performed well in the last few quarters. Do you know what went wrong and if it will bounce back shortly. Is it a BUY

Thanks,
Vicky

Anonymous said...

hello arunji
i have asked u few days before also abt chd developers. is it a next multibeggar in ur view? kindly comment as one of my advisor told me to accumulate it as much as i can bcos it will above RS.100/- With in a year. kindly suggest this script.

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Very bullish on jai balaji ind.

2)Not sure why chd is moving up like that.Cant predict a target.Also be realistic in your desires.

3)I dont follow datsons.Infact just got aware of the name now.If someone tips you up,ask the reason behind it.

4)HIL will perform once the economy picks up.

5)Again if your so called advisors told u to buy chd,ask him the reason.Say what will make it move to 100?And who will buy it at 100?The one who will buy it at 100, why aint he buying at 6?Ask him all this and if he answers,put them in the comments section.

Anonymous said...

Hi arun, can please provide your views on these companies. Mother sumi and pancea biotech, jk tyre for 1 year, wockhardt, vessel pro pack and us a martin,thanks shailesh

Anonymous said...

Dear Arunji,

Any specific reason for the recent movement of gulshan polyols can i buy at the CMP. pls advice.

Anonymous said...

I dont follow datsons.Infact just got aware of the name now.If someone tips you up,ask the reason behind it.

Arunji,
Earlier the compnay name was Anjaneya pharma now the comapny issue new warrants to off load the debt. is it worthable now pls advice.

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Very bullish on gulshan poly.Recommended to paid members at 70 bucks few months ago.

2)What will happen in one month?Who cares buddy.I lack the caliber of predicting short term stuff.All of the stocks are good quality and should provide lot of money in the next 2-3 years.

3)I dont like companies which change their names at the first place.Secondly much deficient in analysing pharma bets.

Anonymous said...

sir wts your view on pipavav defence...can we see the level of 100 in coming months....plz comment

satishdevata said...

Hi Arun,

Could you please share your views on First Source Solutions, NCC Ltd and Anantraj Ltd.

Anonymous said...

Hi Arunthanks for the reply, can I buy hit media at current levels currently trading trading at 87, can it become a multibagger stock, also please suggest best media stocks for next 5 yes, thanks shailesh

Anonymous said...

Hi Atulneeded or advise o gruh finance as its going to give bonus, price would be coming hard 150, can it again move to 500 in next 3 to 5 years, also please suugest the best stock according to you in the LNG run from this sector, thanks shailesh

Anonymous said...

Dear Arun,



Is Panacea biotec right stock to buy at cmp?

If yes then pls suggest me which one (marksans or amtek auto)should i sell ? To buy panacea biotec.



Regards,
Yogi

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Pipa defence a good bet to look for the long term.Kinda a stable compounder.

2)NCC moved a lot.Its one of the best infra companies with superior results.Company would keep outperforming the market.Anant raj too got a lot of potential.Firstsource has restructured its operations and well may pen a scripture for itself.

3)I only prefer TV Today in the entire media sector.HT media has lot of value too.

4)Gruh finance already is a huge company.It wont provide the earlier returns but will be a safe compounder at 15-20% per year for next many years.You can also look at a company called canfin homes.Petronet is a good bet,with huge potential.

5)What will you sell and why you want to sell is beyond my understanding reach.Regarding panacea this is what I got in the morning from a client of mine.Again not my own stuff,just a forward...Sharp fall in its share price from Rs.400 level to below Rs.100 level. Panacea Biotec – the second largest vaccine maker in our country – passes through some tough business environment during past 3-4 years.Earlier many of its vaccines excluded from the WHO per-qualification criteria and debt related issues resulted in erosion of more than 50% of its peak net worth. Now ,after many quality related inspections UNICEF permitted the company to resume the supply of vaccines. On the other side company is in the process of reducing its debt burden and already admitted for a CDR.I believe ,this is the turn around time for Panacea Biotec and the right entry point too .Company is expected to report better numbers from this quarter onwards and strongly recommending to enter in Panacea at CMP of Rs.107 with a medium to long term view.

Anonymous said...

Hi arunthanks a lot for your recommendations, I was going through dolly khanna portfolio in that latest pick I think she has bought nilkamal can it become the next multibagger, I have gone through your recommendations you had also recommended the same at 95 rupees, now it is at ard 200, is the future of the company good in the coming times, I wanted your advise before going forward, please give me your feedback, thanks a lot again, shailesh

Anonymous said...

SIR I BOUGHT ANIL LTD AT RS100 FEW DAYS BACK . NOW IT IS RS 150 . SHOULD I HOLD IT FOR LONG .NEED UR WORDS

Anonymous said...

sir I want to enter in power sector....which stock I should go Reliance power or Adani power

thanveer said...

Dear Arun, I feel Omnitex promoters will keep the stock price down until they accumulate 75% share. Now they have 51% holding. So it may take another 5 years to reach 75%. Or is there any other possibilities?

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Ya Nilkamal is a counter which I like a lot and feel it has got potential.

2)Keep Holding anil by keeping a stop profit at 125rs.

3)Maybe you can buy indiabulls power or ksk energy.

4)Omnitex got no volumes,so promoters would buy from whom?They can get upto 75% shareholding by issuing themselves warrants in lieu of their stake in the company.

Anonymous said...

Dear sir ,

I am long term invester. Can buy core education?
As we know indag rubber's results are not good . Should i book profit or hold it?
Thanks sir.

Anonymous said...

Sir as you mentioned tv today is your top media stock pick so can i exit from dish tv and enter in tv today what is your view dish tv not moves

Anonymous said...

Sir as you mentioned tv today is your top media stock pick so can i exit from dish tv and enter in tv today what is your view dish tv not moves

Anonymous said...

Hello Arunji, I have Gokul Refoil @ 18.60. What are your views on it? How much potential upside can be seen in the next 1-2 years. Am waiting for your views. Will be appreciated. Thanks. Regards, Rakesh.

Anonymous said...

hi arun

what are your views on "Himachal Futuristic Communications" and is it good for a long term hold

regards

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Dont like any past wealth destroyer,hence HFCL an avoid.

2)Core education note u can find on this blog.

3)You can have both dish tv as well as tv today.

4)Dont track gokul any more.

5)Indag remains a good long term bet.

Anonymous said...

Sir please your on cheviot company is it buy or sell

Anonymous said...

Dear Arunji,

What is your view on shasun Pharmaceuticals. can i buy at CMP of Rs.85/-. pls advice.

Anonymous said...

Dear Arunji,

What is your view on shasun Pharmaceuticals. can i buy at CMP of Rs.85/-. pls advice.

Aluwalia said...

Sir
Whats yoyr view on GPPL

Anonymous said...

What's your current opinion on Anuh pharma @cmp 150

Riyaz Mohammed said...

dear arunji, waht is your view on Morganite Crucible (India). is it a long term bet ???

Aluwalia said...

Can you ls tells abot Orchid chemicals, is it investment worthy at cmp of 54?

Anonymous said...

Share your views on Manjushree Technopack and Zenith Fibers

Anonymous said...

wts ur view on nilkamal...dolly khanna buy some stake

Anonymous said...

Hi arun,can u please give your opinion regarding wounder LA IPO and its future prospects, I amintrested in buying it for 2 yes time horizon, also can I buy indiabulls power at current price can it become a multibagger from current levels, as its going to commence its operations now, please give your value able comments thanks Shailesh.

Anonymous said...

sir..please share your view on cheviot and dai ichi karkaria

Anonymous said...

i have 100 shares of cheviot.its fundamentals are superb.it is undervalued as i believe.it has huge reserve.i also want to buy 100 shares more.What is your opinion Arunji..?

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Cheviot company has got very deep value in it.Though jute isnt fancied but it has got a lot more to it.Company is a long term winner.Once market realizes the potential,scrip can get massively rerated.

2)Positive on shasun chemicals.Company though had some past issues,but seems back on strong footing.

3)Gujarat pipavav has a robust biz model.In good times,watch out for this particular counter.

4)Anuh and morganite I dont follow this days.Not a fan of orchid chemicals either.Though they have found some life after a lot of time.

5)Manjushree and zenith fibres have recommended it to my paid members earlier.Both great long term bets.

6)Nilkamal even I have a recommendation in this blog at 90 bucks.Positive on it.

7)Net sales were Rs 137.95 crore and PAT Rs 33.48 crore in FY 2013. On fully diluted post-IPO equity share capital of Rs 56.50 crore, EPS for FY 2013 was Rs 5.9. Net sales stood at Rs 119.69 crore and PAT at Rs 30.99 crore for the nine months ended December 2013. Due to seasonality of business and the fact that the best two quarters have already passed (the company gets 35% of its total sales in Q1 and 27% in Q3 and the rest is equally spread between remaining quarters), it is very much likely that the actual EPS that the company will report for FY 2014 will be lower than the annualized EPS for the nine months ended December 2013. Thus we are not annualizing EPS for the nine months ended 2013. At the lower price band of Rs 115 and higher price band of Rs 125, the offer price discounts FY 2013 earning 19.4 times and 21.1 times, respectively.La wonderila,though got expensive valuations but a good business to be in.Apply for listing and long term gains.

8)Dont follow daichi karkaria.So cant comment.

Anonymous said...

Hi arun,thanks for the reply, can u suggest the approximate stock price that I can expect for TV today after 3 years, thanks shailesh

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun - your view on Rossel India and impact of it's QSR - Kabab Express success ?

Anonymous said...

hi arun,

Is gujarat borosil a good long term hold.

thanks and regards

Anonymous said...

Hello Arun, What is your view on Infotech Enterprise?Where do you see it in next 5 years? Do you see it crossing 1000? Your views will be appreciated. Regards,Kamlesh.

satishdevata said...

HI Arun,

Can you please share your views on BHEL , Shilpa Medicare, Maharastra Seamless for medium term period around 2 years. Does these stocks have any multibagger potentitial and can i buy at current levels.
If you feel any better stocks in these respective sectors, please advise.

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun' can you suggest the best small cap companies for a 5 year period which can give good returns. Thanks shailesh

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun' can you suggest the best small cap companies for a 5 year period which can give good returns. Thanks shailesh

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Open the moneycontrol compounding tool and calculate the CAGR of TV today as per the blog estimate.You would get the price.

2)Have got an eye on Rossel.Studying the company actively as of now.

3)Gujrat borosil ya a definite a long term hold.

4)I prefer Kpit to infotech.Also loved tata elxsi but it tripled in a short time.But infotech can be a steady 20-25% compounder in the next 4-5 years.

5)For stock ideas and small caps or anything keep on glancing the pages of the blog.Check how good and great the stories are.You will get a lot of them.I own shilpa medicare and highly bullish on it.Dont like bhel coz of its size but maha seamless looks good.

Anonymous said...

wts ur view on himalya international

Anonymous said...

Sir - any update on expansion plans of PAUSHAK ?

Aluwalia said...

Good morning
Can we invest in AIA Engneering at CM for long term?
Rgds

Anonymous said...

How is Themis Medicare which you had recomended earlier? Is it a Buy now? How is the company and its fffuture prospectus?
rgds

Anonymous said...

Hi arun thanks for your reply, got to learn from you, I had never bought liquor companies, now amintrested in buying either radico khaitan or tilaknagar, which of the 2 is a good company, is it possible can any of the 2 can become a multibagger like united spirits,also please suggest the levels at which I should buy them, astilaknagar is stars 65 and radio is around 115,thanks a lot, shailesh

Anonymous said...

Arun ji pls share your views on opto circuits and will it go back to its good old days

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Not bullish on himalaya.Management concerns remain.

2)AIA a good bet for long term.

3)No updates on paushak's plan.

4)Have shifted from themis to shilpa medicare some months back.

5)Tilaknagar and radico,okay kinda bet.Though bullish on gm brewaries.

6)Till debt issue lingers,opto wont have old great days.

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun, I had bought spic(Southern Petrochemicals Industries Corporation Ltd.) at Rs.30
Rei Agro at 27, Gujarat Gas Company Ltd. at 350, Educomp Solutions at 207, Excel Infoways at 60. Can u please help with ur opinion on these companies.

Regards.

Manas Jaiswal said...

If you want to get the valuable stock market recommendations, traders would like to get stock future tips free trial recommendations.

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun,can please give me your opinion for these companies and the approximately rate of return that these can deliver in next 5 to 7 years. 1. Godrej properties, 2. Motherson sumi. Thanks shailesh

lee woo said...

Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. See the link below for more info.


#sincere
www.mocsbar.com

ELANGO MUNUSAMY said...

GOOD WORK ARUN

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