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Sunday, May 18, 2014

Stock market guidelines and a stock idea:-TRF ltd

Recent guidelines note given to members and also a stock tip which so far has moved over 30% in a matter of 3 weeks and looks good for more.

The 10 pointers which will help you to protect your losses and enhance the profits.Also accumulate the given names too.

1)Accumulate high conviction Top 10 ideas:-Tv today,Godrej properties,Ptc Finance,Jyothy labs,Canfin Homes,Shilpa Medicare,Fluidomat,Selan exploration,Transport Corp and Atul auto.

2)One question which flows incessantly is the query regarding targets.I mean why do you need to bother about targets?We all talk about the Jhunjhunwalas and the Damanis,crave for 10-20-50 baggers.Imagine if the ones who owned those stocks,sold at 20-30% profits or exited on some targets,Would they be worth so much today?Simply no is the answer.Please don't bother about targets.Stay put till the story is intact.

3)Its definitely important to ride your profits as well as to conserve them.The best way to do so is to keep a trailing profit level at your comfort.Say I have recommended a stock at 100 for a target of 150.It meets the target so will you sell?Again no is the answer.You keep a stop profit at 130 and continue to ride the rally.If it falls to 130,be happy as you have made 30%.But there's more than a chance it may continue to move up.Say if the stock moves from 150 to 180,put the stop profit at 150-160 and so on.In this way you can taste the real bigtime multibaggers.

4)I have been fortunate to earn quite a sum through stock markets.The secret being simple.I have always put some fund on a monthly basis throughout the last 11 years of my stock market endeavour.No matter if its 500 bucks or 5 lakhs,every penny helps.They make your cost of acquisition price very healthy.So try to allocate some fund every month folks.

5)The aspect which pains me a lot is the act on ignorance.You guys often buy without even knowing what the company is all about.Hearsay,rumuors get heavy on you.Equity represents lucrative ownership.Imagine a click of a mouse makes you the proud owner of a great company.Its obligated to share each and everything with yourself.Can wealth be made in more easier way?So the next time you delve into some company,make sure you have reasons and logic backing it.

6)Understand margin of safety.Its great to know about a company,its business and future prospects.Knowing about margin of safety is of prime importance too.A good dividend yield,great visionary promoters,any competitive advantage or moat,attractive valuations and decent return ratios act mostly as the margin of safety.If your company got all of these or say some of this aspects-It will more likely outperform the markets both ways,bear and bull market.

7)Am not a votary of stop losses,more a believer of averaging rather.But I have observed a lot of members piling on the ones which got a lot of risk and the high beta factor.Under such circumstances put a stop loss at 35% below the acquisition price.Again minimising losses and maximizing profits should be your mantra always.Even in my scrips, if something moves down more than 35%,simply exit from it.Coz after a lot of careful study, taking into account the margin of safety factor,a scrip gets suggested.So such a severe fall will only indicate something has gone wrong terribly.

8)Please don't chase any stock.Often the day after my recommendation,I find a lot of scrips either hitting upper circuit or quoting near to the circuit.Why to chase a stock?Is it like you wont get any more opportunities or am I winding up the consultancy services?Haste only makes waste.Buy slowly,steadily.Accumulate in the declines.Even if it moves only up,there's something better waiting for you to lap it up.

9)I know all my members are realistic and not the ones who gamble to loose.Warren Buffet, the greatest and the richest investor of all times made billions just by 20% odd compounding.So if you have been able to make 25-30% in a year,pat on your back as you really have accomplished something commendable.Any one who is looking for doubling or tripling of money in a quarter,can well make their way in the horse race course or in the lottery ticket counters.

10)Make a proper portfolio allocation.Often a lot of people puts 100% in a single counter.Ain't there more 5200 listed counters?If you have got high conviction,can put 25-30% in it.Not more than that.Always better to construct a diversified portfolio of 12-15 stocks.A single 30% allocation to a 20-30 bagger can well liberate you.Also a 26% portfolio compounder for 16 years with just 3000rs monthly fund allocation will give you the craved  millionaire status.It would be prudent to note that my consultancy services have provided over 30% CAGR since its inception.Last year being as high as 47%,as you folks are aware.Happy investing members.



Short term call:-(Given hardly 3 weeks ago)

Scripscan:TRF ltd
Traded in:Nse-Bse
Cmp:147
Target:225(Raised from 185)
Duration:3-4 months
Percentage return:52%

Note:A short term call and thus makes no senses to pen a large note.

Business:Established in 1962 as Tata Robins Fraser, TRF is a pioneer in solutions for material handling equipment and processing systems required in the infrastructure development and automotive applications.The material handling equipment and systems business caters mainly to sectors such as power, steel, port, mining, etc. Its two principle business segments, products and projects, are further divided into the following business units:

Bulk Material Handling Equipment: The division specialises in the design and manufacture of a wide range of material handling equipment, such as wagon tipplers, conveying systems, screens and crushers, travelling wagon loaders, etc. The division manufactures its products in its state-of-the-art works at Jamshedpur.

Bulk Material Handling Systems: The division offers a complete package of material handling and allied systems and services on a turnkey basis.

Port and Yard Equipment: This division focuses on the design, supply, erection and the commissioning of material handling equipment for ports and stockyards including level luffing cranes, ship loaders and unloaders, container cranes, stacker-reclaimers, etc.

Balance of Plant (BoP): This division offers complete EPC solution to power plant developers, comprises systems and utilities like coal and ash handling plants, water treatment, cooling tower, electrical-BoP, civil work, HVACs and compressed air, fire prevention and fuel handling systems. Its services also include system engineering for integration within BoP packages and those between BTG and BoP.

Operation and Maintenance Services: The division provides operation and maintenance services to customers using bulk material handling equipment.

Joint ventures, subsidiaries, associates:-

1)York Transport Equipment (Asia) Pte, Singapore is engaged in the business of production and distribution of trailer under-gears, which includes axles, suspensions and other components.The company has manufacturing facilities in Singapore, Australia, China and India.

2)Adithya Automotive Applications is an automotive applications unit in Lucknow, India, which provides end-to-end solutions through fabrication and machining for tippers, load bodies, refrigerated bodies, etc.

30Dutch Lanka Trailer (DLT) Manufacturers, Sri Lanka is a world-class trailer manufacturing company with manufacturing facilities in Sri Lanka, Oman and India. It exports trailers to over 30 countries.

4)Hewitt Robins International designs and manufactures mobile crushing plants and screens, feeders, foundry equipment, etc. The company produces standard and custom-designed equipment to perform in the toughest industrial environments.

Story:Often a quarter is enough to start a new bright trend.The same is the reason for recommending this week's call TRF or Tata Robin Fraser.

Results:TRF delivered consolidated 4th quarter revenues of 352crs vs 292crs in the corresponding period.It hit a PAT of 24crs vs a loss of 50crs earlier.For the full year 2013-14,the company clocked consolidated revenues of 1175crs vs 1115crs.Losses reduced to 28crs vs 92crs.

Conclusion:Earlier its debt went up as collections wasn't good because of the money market situation, some of the customers didn't pay and some of the projects got delayed. A lot of its money gets spent on these projects and overall the debtors went up and that impacted it badly.Company now got plans to reduce its debt by 10-15% which will help it to improve its margins.Management is very confident of making a strong turnaround in the present fiscal.This is the same company which even few years ago quoted at a level of 1100 bucks.Sectoral slowdown and resultant losses made the company shrink to new lows.It belongs to the coveted TATA stable and with better numbers,scrip may certainly roar and move on to new levels.


People looking for midcap/smallcap positional call professional service may rush a mail at my mail id arunsharemarket@gmail.com to know more about it.

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun,

What's your opinion on Ador welding and Apar Industries? Had a good spike today, both of them. Have run out of steam? Or both good long term bets?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Arun, do you track arrow coated products? It ballooned in a year. Is it still worth entering at cmp or wait for corrections. Your valuable advise

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun Sir...
What is your view on SMS Pharma, Superhouse and V2 Retail?

Binesh Patel

Nani Bommasani said...

Good Arun, I was a bit surprised by seeing your top 10 high conviction stocks. Why you didn't include Symphony any specific reason? I thought Symphony is your Favorite company. I am holding symphony will suggesting me to shit to any specific stock out of your top 10 stocks?

Thanks for your answer
Hariprasad

Hari Prasad said...

Good Arun,
I would like to know your view on CRISIL, Will advise to buy CRISIL?

Thanks in advance
Hariprasad

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Positive on ador as well as apar.They are due for a rerating.

2)I missed arrow coated at 12rs but there's some issues in the company as per the auditor comments.So though it seems a great company but some valid concern remains.

3)V2,superhouse,sms pharma positive on all of them.They should rally now.

4)Not only symphony but I didnt include my other favorite counters like tata elxsi and mayur uniquoters coz they been already a many bagger for me and the members.Counters which can move much in future with attractive valuations are penned.

5)Crisil is a superstar.Always would compound at 15-20% for many years to come.

Abbas Khoja said...

Hi Arun sir,
I am having shares of Maxwell industry at the rate of 27.
I want your advice on it.
Should I sell it or hold.
And suggest me some stock to make some profit.

Anonymous said...

Hey Arun,

I have bought 2000 shares of saksoft @ 84 but it going down every day . Due to think i should stay invested in the IT stock when rupee is appreciating...

Please advice

Thanks and regards
Preeti

avinash kuwar said...

Sir is s.kumars is a buy @ current price?

Anonymous said...

Arun, with modi govt always towards solar power and energy, is there any good listed solar company to get invested in?

Anonymous said...

Arun ji your views on Prozone.Thanks

Anonymous said...

Arun ji your views on Prozone.Thanks

Nani Bommasani said...

Good day Arun,
Thanks for your prompt reply's. What do you think abt Atul Auto results is it still at your expectations? I can see dividend is increasing.

Thanks
Hariprasad

sidhant mansinghka said...

dear sir
wats ur view on chd developers,nila infra,parsvnath developers? in ur opinion they r much undervalued till date. can they may be multibaggers?

Anonymous said...

wts ur view on nilkamal...as there mattress buisness is going to make revenue of 100 cr

Anonymous said...

Dear sir , what is ur view on bilcare?

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun sir,
What is your view on Vimta Lab?

Ganesh, H.P.

Ramesh Raju said...

Sir

Ur view on gitanjali jew

I have bought at 105

Ramesh Raju said...

Sir

Ur view on gitanjali gems
Ihave bought at 105

Anonymous said...

Hi,

Please let me know your views on Astra Microwave, Atlanta, Simplex Infra

Thanks,
Rakesh

Anonymous said...

hi arun

wats ur view on this market bull run, will there be any correction in coming few months

regards

Anonymous said...

Hi Arunbhai,

Please advice me on Mafatlal Ind. @CMP. I have bought it @166.00.
Regards
JD

Anonymous said...

Booked out of trf very early @185 coz it was moving in circuits and tide water also @ 9600 ..
Any re-entry point for both the stocks ??

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Maxwell got a good brand value but promoters are too lethargic.Page became 15 bagger,yet maxwell stays at the same place.Let c how the coming quarter number pans out for the company.

2)Saksoft and skumars results would dictate its future price trend.Any good numbers and management comments would make them rally big.

3)In renewable energy my favorite orient power looks good.In solar there's an interesting play called swelect energy.Thats looks good.

4)I dont track prozone so cant comment on it.

5)Atul auto results were decent.Its more of a 20-25% compounder now for coming 5 years.

6)I prefer godrej properties to chd or nila or parswanath.Godrej properties can be a 100 bagger in the next 30 years.

7)I have recommended nilkamal in this blog when it was at 90.Company seems to be in great shape.

8)I was a fan of bilcare at one point of a time.Company lost its footing and went in a mess.Let c when they recoups their lost glory.

9)Vimta I missed at 20 levels.Looking at dips to enter.

10)You can find my gitanjali note in this blog itself.

11)Am positive on astra among the lot.Covered its conference call,management gave rich guidance too.

12)Ya this market reminds me of 2003 bull run.You people gonna see a lot of multibaggers in the years to come.Exciting times are ahead folks.

13)Trf was a buy the level you sold.If it can repeat its last quarter results,stock would hit 350.

14)Mafatlal needs to deliver strong set of numbers to outperform the markets.

Anonymous said...

My entry point was lower in trf .. So had exited around 180 coz it was volatile ..

Nani Bommasani said...

Good day Arun, Are you tracking Balaji Amines? What is your view? one can enter at this level?

Thanks in advance
Hariprasad

Dipanjan Basu said...

Hi Arun whats your take on" Future Consumer Enterprise " ?Is it a turn around stock of the famous Future group?

Anonymous said...

Arun ji pls update on gvk power and india bulls power

Anonymous said...

Dear Arun ji what is your upon an ant raj dish TV and aksh optifiber as your view is valuable for me thanks

Anonymous said...

Dear sir,

What is ur view on everonn education or indag rubber?
I am getting 120% profit in simplex project.

Should i sell or hold or buy on dip ?

Anonymous said...

Dear sir,

What is ur view on shriram epc ?
Results are about to come in few days.

Thanks Arun.

Anonymous said...

hello sir..
thank you for such a commendable work..
I want to know what is the future of opto circuits and allied digital services ltd??

Anonymous said...

hello sir..
you are doing such a wonderful work..I want to.ask about balasore alloys..is it a gud company to bet on??

Ramesh Raju said...

Sir

Ihold gati at @ 100 rs trident at19rs fsl at 31 & gitanjali gem at 105 rs

Can i hold them or sell any of it.
As i am new investor please guide me

Anonymous said...

What's your view on Mirza international ?? Stock has falls. From 33-35 levels twice .. Today the results were very bad .. NP down 28% .. Holding from 33 levels ..

Ratna Kumar said...

what is ur view on godrej properties,selan exploration and aegis logistics?

Anonymous said...

wts ur view on rolta...I thinks its a good bet

Anonymous said...

Acrysil posted bad results. What is your view on this stock. Would you recommend a retry at lower levels? Also could you share your views on KNR Const and Shreyas Shipping.

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)I am tracking balaji amines from a very long time.Company never performed as per its potential.But with its recent management words and confidence,stock looks in good shape.Hope it delivers big this time.

2)Dont like future group or Biyani managed companies.They can only demerge to destroy wealth.However market should be good for next few years,over ambitious promoters may just find something to make their stock move up bigtime.

3)If you look at the past comments you would find I was very bullish on indiabulls power at around 7-8,if it comes to below 10 again.Do pocket in quantities.Dont track gvk.

4)I prefer godrej properties to anant raj,finolex cables to aksh.Dish tv should do well but tv today is my sole media bet.

5)Dont track everonn but positive on Indag rubber.

6)Shriram group is a cash rich group with sound management skills.Once infra theme picks up,it will roar.

7)Opto and allied were the finest companies of the past.They will need to do a lot of work to get back their glory days.

8)Balasore alloys is a very nice company.Once the metal stocks perform,it would come in limelight.

9)Gati should do well.I like TCI a lot too.You can read gitanjali note from this blog.Rest I dont track.

10)I have never liked mirza owing to its lethargic sleeping management.I loved relaxo and its a 10 bagger over the last 3-4 years.

11)Very positive on godrej prperties,selan and aegis.

12)Rolta had management issues in past.Not comfortable with it.

13)I dont follow shreyas.KNR is a good construction bet with a hefty order book position.Lets give one more quarter to acrysil.

Nani Bommasani said...

Good day Arun,
Thanks for your reply on Balaji Amines.
Do you perhaps tracking Hikal?
Hikal offers a broad spectrum of R&D and Custom Manufacturing solutions in Pharma and Agri chemical companies.
I have good faith on the company but growing a bit slow. I want to know your view to give me some boost on my decisions.
Your views on this company will be highly appreciated.

Thanks
Hariprasad

Anonymous said...

hello sir..
I have been holding century plyboards @72..what is the future of this company?

Anonymous said...

Hi arun

are there any bio diesel listed companies or any company that can be a raw material source for bio diesel production
Did googling but could not get hold on any

regards

Sanjay Darkonde said...

sir ur view on orissa mine dev corp (OMDC) can i enter @this level

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun, hats off to your ability in spotting great businesses early. I know you recommended TVTodayNetwork but what's your view on TV18? They acquired ETV and had good quarter as well. How do they compare in terms of wealth creation?

Anonymous said...

sir what are your views about tata chemicals??
I'm having @374 rate..

Anonymous said...

sir I'm stuck in 3i info @25 rs..what to do in it?
what is the future of the company??

Ratna Kumar said...

Hi, How is hawkins results,should we buy this for longterm?

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Hikal is a manufacturer of active ingredients, intermediates, regulatory starting materials and a provider of research support services to the Pharmaceutical, Crop Protection and Specialty Chemicals industry.It was loosing out earlier coz of forex losses.Got a good future ahead.

2)Dont follow century ply coz of my favorite wimplast which has been a great performer for the members over the last 3 years.

3)I like to bet on tv today coz of the simplicity.Dont like companies with burly equity.TV18 may be a 35rs counter but its nearly valued at 6000crs.TV18 though would do pretty well going forward.

4)Ya you can go for OMDC at lower levels.

5)TATA chemical is a good example of a quality management in a not so great business.Though overall in longer term should do well.

6)Hawkins is a fantastic 3-5 year kinda story.

7)Dont follow 3i info,so cant comment on it.

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