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Archives : Old artciles

Saturday, June 14, 2014

Shakti pumps and Gulshan polyols:-The couple of amazing attractively valued midcap bets

Recommended to paid members hardly few weeks back.Its time for you readers to act on it.


Stock tip:-

Scripscan:Shakti Pumps ltd
Traded in:Nse-Bse
Buy range:135-149rs
Target:210rs
Percentage returns:50%
Duration:9-12 months

Company:An ISO 9001-2008 certified company has its sprawling state of the art manufacturing facilities with an installed capacity of 1 million pumps per annum, is strategically situated in central India at Pithampur in the state of Madhya Pradesh.Company manufactures diverse models of submersible pumps and motors and other application pumps for a wide range of applications. Over the years of steady growth, Shakti has become one of the leading pump exporters in India apart being a major player in domestic market as well.Today the company is answering water needs of more than 100 countries across the globe and the number is steadily growing over years. Owing to its success of strong product lines and technology that is at par with the best in international markets, Shakti Pumps has carved a niche amongst quality conscious users around the globe.

Accolades and Product applications:Shakti is among the few pioneers in the world to produce 100% stainless steel submersible pumps and motors.Shakti is rubbing its shoulders with best brands in the world thanks to the state-of-the art technology and innovation as its hallmarks.The main focus of the company is to manufacture best quality pumps which consume less energy, have long life and are easy to maintain. Considering energy efficiency features of its pumps, Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) has granted it 5-star ratings to more than 260 of its pump models.Its pumps are largely used for applications like drinking water supply, agriculture, irrigation, industrial applications and processes, pressure boosting in high rise buildings and townships, rural/urban community water supply schemes, waste and sewage water treatments, firefighting etc.

New products:Innovation and R&D are the key of long sustainability in the pumps industry and it got plans to launch many new products like high capacity solar pumps, enhance the range of booster pumps, upgraded open well pumps, and hydro pneumatic systems and update products as per customer requirements. Its also in process to develop high quality energy conservative sewage pumps,slurry pumps, waste water pumps, hot water pumps etc.All this products will help the company catapult in the top global league and cement its position as one of the largest players.

Industry outlook:The global pump industry in on the threshold of scorching growth ahead in the coming decade.Global pump demand will rise 6.4 percent yearly through 2016 to $76.1 billion. Gains in developing areas such as China and India will result from investment in water infrastructure and electricity generation.In developed areas, growth will be driven by process manufacturing.Growing urbanization,irregular rainfall and depleting ground water levels augur well for the pump industry.India's agriculture accounts for around 14% of its GDP and employs majority of the people.The Govt has taken various initiatives to improve the agri business thereby reducing the growing food inflation rate.Demands for food grains and ground water for irrigation will drive the demand for the pump industry in our country in the near future.

Company Future outlook:Despite only moderate growth in the global economy,company expects order intake and sales revenue to grow at a good speed in coming years. In next two yearsthe company aims to achieve top line of 600 crores with net margins of 10%+.In the last one year, the company expanded its footprint into new geographies like Ecuador, Mexico, Argentina and Morocco.It has plans to register its presence in all BRICS, G20 and European Union and in other growing countries in coming years. Shakti pumps is also committed to increase the Branch Network to 30 and Dealer network to 100 by the next 15 months.Shakti has further plans to set up or acquire small plants in other region of the country which will help it to cater across the regions by mid 2015.

Domestic focus:Solar pumping solutions also are the next big buzz in the sector as many state govt with MNRE are coming up with solar pumping projects.With its strong R&D capabilities, the company is moving towards industrial pumps,solar pumps to target institutional and Govt businesses.Going forward, Shakti Pumps has decided to expand its presence in the domestic market by tapping the fast growing industrial segment through its energy efficient pumps. The company has also made a strategic shift in its dealership model beginning April 1, 2014. The company will now appoint dealers who will exclusively sell only its products. This it believes will help the company to serve farmers better as they will now opt for what is required and not what is necessarily offered to them.

Margin of safety:The company trades at just 5 PE(forward earnings) vs industry PE of 15.Its one of the largest player in its segment.Five year((from 2009 to 2014)CAGR of Sales and profits at 22% and 26% respectively.Sales went up from 107crs to 292crs,PAT galloped to 25crs from just around 8crs in the same period.Stock market loves consistent players and treat them with premium valuations.The investor friendly company rewarded shareholders with a 1 for 1 bonus issue in the year 2011 which speaks about the confidence and conviction of the management.Promoter owns around 45% stake in the company as on date.ROE and ROCE of over 15% and 20% respectively.

Concerns:Chinese competition remains the main concern but the superior quality and competitive price of the company's product will ensure it always remains in the reckoning.

Conclusion:It is investing aggressively for strengthening product mix with value added pumps to cater growing international and domestic market.About 67% of revenues comes from export and remaining 33% from Indian market.On a consolidated basis, Shakti Pumps India's net profit rose 48.5% to Rs 24.98 crore on 39.9% increase in net sales to Rs 292.09 crore in the year ended 31 March 2014 over the year ended 31 March 2013.Now the company targets sales of Rs 400 crore plus including exports of 250crs and PAT of Rs 42-45 crore for FY 2015(with 21-22% EBITDA margins).That should result into an EPS of 29rs for fy15.The company presently quotes at a very attractive valuation of just 5 times its expected earnings.A mere multiple of 7 odd times helps me to arrive at the target price of 210rs.



Gulshan Polyols:-

Gulshan polyols has moved nearly 200% since the recommendation hardly 6 months back.Enjoy members.

Quote:I have been fortunate to be associated with a lot of amazing analyst buddies and corporate folks.I have been bullish on GPL for quite a while now.On discussing about the future prospects of the company with kinda a mentor figure(Hemant bhai),he forwarded me his take in the counter.Since we both post similar stuff,am not penning any fresh words but having said that it must be noted we both echo a very bullish stance on this particular counter.

Stock tip:-

Scripscan:Gulshan Polyols Ltd(December end call)
Bse code:532457
Cmp:70rs
Target:180rs
Return percentage:160%
Duration:9-12 months

Story:Muzaffar Nagar based Gulshan Polyols Ltd (GPL) has emerged as the largest manufacturer in India of 70% Sorbitol and Calcium Carbonate.Its production facilities are spread over 6 locations in 5 states covering land area of more than 150 acres. Company has installed capacity of 1.05 lac tonnes of Calcium Carbonate and 60000 tonnes of Sorbitol.In order to reduce energy costs, GPL also has 10MW of cogen power.

SORBITOL 70%:GPL has fully integrated facility for producing Sorbitol (Corn to Starch to Dextrose to Sorbitol) with 3MW cogen power. Sorbitol is mainly used as Sugar substitute and bondingagent. Main user industries are Healthcare,Cosmetics,Confectionary,Textile,Paper,Paints industry etc.

CALCIUM CARBONATE :Company producing various varieties including PCC, GCC, ACC and WGCC. Installed capacity is 1.05 lac tonnes with 7MW cogen power plant to meet energy requirements. GPL is also 1st company in India to install onsite PCC plant at a paper factory.Main user industry for Calcium Carbonate are PVC&Cables,Dentrifice,Detergents,Rubber,Plastics etc.

Clientele:GPL's customer list includes who's who of corporate India:-
FMCG :Colgate, Dabur, ITC, Unilever, Wipro
Food :Brittania, Candico, Yahoo Foods
Paints :Berger, Asian Paints, Kansai, Pidilite
Paper :ITC, TNPL,BILT, ABC Papers, Century Pulp
Pharma :IPCA, Cadilla, Torrent, AstraZeneca, Novartis, Pfizer, Merck etc

Buying of promoters:Last year, promoters had increased their stake by 5% (maximumpermissible limit through creeping acquisition route). Again, in current year promoters have increased their stake by another 3.50%.Now, PROMOTER STAKE STANDS AT 73.64%. A comparative small promoter increasing stake by 8.50% in less than 2 years speaks of confidence of promoter in future prospects of GPL.

Valuation:.GPL has been reporting consistent performance and steady growth. Same has been possible due to strong cost control measures, highly efficient production practices,and dominant market shares with strong/top brand customer base. Despite so called economic slowdown and global factors and rising interest rates,company has been improving its performance year after year which speak s of efficient management. With low debt, interest cost account for less than 1.50% of total sales.For FY13, GPL Pat rose 34.70% to 24.13 crores, translating into EPS of Rs 27.43. Company doubled the dividend to Rs 2.50 per share.For H1, GPL has achieved good nos with topline rising by 18% and Bottomline rising 14%.Newly set up plant in Rajasthan has contributed to higher turnover.GPL is likely end FY14 with topline of 310 cr ores and Pat of Rs 25.50 which will provide EPS of Rs 30.20. Hence, stock is available at extremely low PE Ratio of 2.5x FY14E EPS.Current Marketcap of GPL is just 64 crores whereas CASH ACCRUALS OF PREVIOUS 2 YEARS (FY 12 and FY 13) stand at Rs. 69.53 crores which means market cap is less than 2 years' Cash accruals.

Conclusion:In today's tough environment,those companies in smallcap and midcap segment have good future which DOMINANT market share of their product, assured demand from growing user industry, low debt, steady growth, strict control of costs and GPL meets all these criteria as its products are used in variety of industries (and those industries are growing rapidly). Moreover,company is supplying its products to renowned MNCs and other big Indian companies,so there are no problem of bad debts and delayed payments. Despite growing business, interest costs are not rising. And, GPL is very cost efficient producer and is able to compete against Chinese manufacturers in international market as well. Finally, GPL has strong and large asset base spread over 6 plants.Company is quoting at very attractive valuations of less than 2.5 PE its FY14 earnings of 30 rs.A modest PE multiple of 6x gives you the target price which is nearly 160% higher than the CMP.At present prices there's hardly any downside either.Go for it folks.
BTW:People looking for midcap/smallcap positional call professional service may rush a mail at my mail id arunsharemarket@gmail.com to know more about it.

74 comments:

Debayan Mukherjee said...

gulshan polyols is at 185 now..looking at the bull market scenario, what kind of target and timeframe will you suggest? (knowing its difficult to predict that for a long term view):)

Bhavin Mehta said...

Arun Ji,
Which one is the best at current price, Roto pumps or Shakti Pumps?

Ashiq mehraj said...

Sir what is your view upon noida toll bridge and bilcare ltd. Your reply is valuable for me also intimate target

satyender singh bisht said...

sir,
please comment on chennai petroleum and SJVN.
thanks

Anonymous said...

Dear Arun,

Please advice on Veer Energy (Jhantla Investment Ltd.) at CMP of Rs. 5.50

Thanks in advance

JD

Anonymous said...

Bhai Arun, hume bhi kuch calls bata do - From your faithful blog reader.

Anonymous said...

Arun sir please your advice on oricon enterprise

Anonymous said...

Dear Arun,

Your views on educomp solutions.

Regards.

Anonymous said...

Whats ur honest views on Phitoquick?

Amit Ghosh said...

Dear Arun,

Hello, Can U give an Idea on SKS Microfinance for a year view. Is it worth holding for a year target around 450.

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun,

What's your view on investing in Astral Poly at CMP for long term of 3-5 years?
This company is being consistently re-rated and though it is a very good business, I always feel nervous to invest in this gem.

Thanks..

Anonymous said...

Please give me your advice on orient green power?

Anonymous said...

Hi arun ji, please suggest about neo corp.

Anonymous said...

Sir please share your valuable advice on REI agro . I have heard that in terms of P/E ratio is one of the cheapest stock and pays divident

Anonymous said...

Arun,

What's your view on eastern gases & Bilcare for longterm? One can enter at CMP?

Regards,
Saravanan

Anonymous said...

what is your view on Premier Limited ?

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun, do you suggest orient paper at current Price, please advice

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Guslhan has been a 3 bagger in the last few months.But valuation wise its still pretty cheap.Still can get rerated and can make the targets,be it whatever,look too tiny.

2)I prefer shakti coz of its growth rate.

3)Bilcare needs to find its footing again.Was one heck of a company.In deep mess,let c how the management performs in the coming quarters.Noida toll is meant for 60+ retired guys.12-15% compounder for coming decade.

4)SJVN is a good hydro power play with decent valuations and dividend yield.Chennai petro,let c how BJP treats this companies.

5)Dont follow oricon,so cant comment.Educomp is probably gone case.

6)Till photoquip promoters perk up 75%,the company wont perform in the bourses.Its LED divion is doing pretty well though.

7)VEER energy is an operator counter.Be scared of companies changing names.

8)Read the recent coverage of astral by forbes.Still some way to go for this amazing counter.

9)SKS is set to regain some part of its lost glory probably.Quite positive on the counter.

10)Orient green is a buy below 15.

11)Used to follow neo corp earlier.Not tracking it .

12)I dont trust the management of rei agro and hence not a buy for me.

13)Orient paper was suggested by me at 14.Maybe a buy below 28.

14)Dont follow easten gases.Premier is of deep value.Intrinsic value is much superior than the present price.

Anonymous said...

Dear Arun,

Pl. guide @26.00 on Jai Balaji Ind.

Should we hold or exit.

Regards

JD

Anonymous said...

Thank you very much Arun sir for replying on Premier ltd.Now I feel confident and purchase the share at cmp as it is much cheaper...thanks again

Ashiq mehraj said...

Thanks sir for your reply please your upon kesoram .mastek and rain industries

Nishant said...

Arun, what is your view on Kitex garments and Asian Granito limited?

Anonymous said...

Sir ur vsluablevaluable views on avance tech, cravatex, sandesh ltd can they be multi bagger

Anonymous said...

Sir pls share your views on 1 good luck steel tubes 2 rubfila international 3 chd devolopers 4 kec international

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Jai balaji is a 5 months story.We will know whether it gets final clearence for 2 of its blocks by 31st of Nov 2014.If its able to get the final clearence,stock will be a multibagger.Else will quote at 15-20.So do accodingly as per your hunch

2)Both kitex and granito are fine bets.Prefer them at declines.

3)I dont track kesoram or mastek or rain.Though I remember met the GM finance of rain,some years ago.

4)Cravatex been a multibagger for me few years ago.But management went to sleep again.Dont track the rest of the lot.

5)Rubfila and kec are sound bets.Buy them on declines.

Rahul Ramchandani said...

Arun whats your view on Sun pharma and Va tech wabag at CMP... 6months view. I think valuations are fair.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for your great job sir what is your view upon aksh optifiber .mangalam cement. helderberg cement

Anonymous said...

wts ur view on resurgere mines ..as they can start mining operations at the end of year....

Anonymous said...

Dear arun,Whats ur view on INVENTURE & HEXA TRADEX.Expecting ur view.Thanks

Anonymous said...

Sir please reply to my query on walchandnagar and dregding .. Both stocks look good for medium to long term view with new government orders and policies ..

Anonymous said...

Dear Arun,
Do your still recommend to buy Gulshan Polyols at this level i.e. even after achieving the target given by you. Also like to know your views on Dish TV and Munjal Showa.
thanks

Nishant said...

Arun, your views on Excel Industries?

Ravi said...

Hi Arun, Can you please provide your insight on Heidelberg Cement for long term?

Navdeep Juneja said...

Hi Arun,

I am your Paid call member and i am so glad that i found you. i have some stocks in my portfolio that were not recommended by you please give me some advice on these stocks.1.Rajesh exports, SML Isuzu, Bajaj Electricals,Havels India, V guard.

Thanks
Harsh

Ashiq mehraj said...

Sir kesoram industries this stock was buy recommendation by you on 18 July 2009 at rupees 312 now I purchase this stock at rupees 102 for one year time horizon is it cross again 300 level in one year or not what is your view whether exit or hold or accumulate more

Anonymous said...

Sir please recommend some value buy cement stocks I am holding rain industries but I don't know about the valuation of this stock please help me

satishdevata said...

Hi Arun,

I have BHEL stocks around worth of RS. 50K. I would like to sell this stock and planning to buy either CoalIndia or BEL or BEML stocks.

Please provide your advice and i am planning this investment for longterm i.e, atleast 15 Years.

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Sun pharma and vatech both are great bets.20% compounders for coming many years.

2)Aksh may do well with the boom in optic fibre cable industry.Mangalam and heidel too should do well once the tailwind starts.

3)I no more track rajesh exports.But rest of the lot are of pure class and high quality.Sound bets for long term.

4)No more tracking kesoram.

5)Ya can move to bel.With defence under much fancy,it should do well.

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Inventure is an operator counter.Not following hexatradex.

2)Can invest in gulshan with a 20% stop loss.

3)Excel ind is a good buy at dips.

4)Both dredging and walchandnanagr are classy bets.Dredging is a monopoly.If divested,can bring a fortune.Walchandnagar need to show some consistency to get rerated.

5)Resurgere is a complete crap.

Bhavin Mehta said...

Arun Ji,
Your multibagger DHP India, at CMP of 115 Rs....What will be your view Hold/Sell/Accumulate/Buy ??? I still find its PB X PE ratio attractive.

Anonymous said...

Arun ji, what is your view on pricol long term 1 to 2 year

Anonymous said...

Arun, can you please let us know what are the shares you are buying on Monthly basis.

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun Sir,
any inputs on Freshtrop Fruit?

Rama, Hyderabad

Anonymous said...

Arun ji pleae shsre your view on capri global capital

Anonymous said...

Sir please share your views on deccan gold mines and nitesh estate

Anonymous said...

Hi Arun,

What's your opinion on Elgi Equipments and Vakrangee Ltd. Good growth potential? Results and balance sheets look good. What's your take?

Thanks.

Anonymous said...

Sir please your view upon mahindra holidays and mahindra financial thanks sir

satishdevata said...

Thanks Arun for your reply.
Could you also please provide suggestion on VST Tillers & tractors, CityUnionBank , KarurVysya bank, Coal India and NIIT Ltd. Is it Worth to buy at current prices for medium term ( i.e, 2-3 years point of view )

Anonymous said...

Dear Arun,

what are your views on SPIC.

Regards.

Kalyan Sarkar said...

Arun Ji ..could u please comment on wheels India and firstsource..could these be multibaggers

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)If DHP can maintain its quarterly trend,scrip will fire mire.

2)PRicol or premier instruments is a good long term bet.After a long long time its kinda breaking out.

3)I dont buy frequently but add more on the existing counters. fluidomat,godrej properties,selan,tv today,jai balaji,tci,ptc finance to name a few.

4)A mate of mine is very bullish on freshtrop fruits.Girish gulati is probably one of the largest shareholder of freshtrop.

5)The niece of Vakrangee's MD told me to buy the counter few years ago.Since then been a 50 bagger probably.I missed it.Not gonna buy now.Elgi is a good long term bet.

6)I dont track capri global.

7)Deccan gold mines has bored investors for last 15 years.Till it finds an ounce of gold,dont buy it.Nitesh estate is sounding very positive on its future outlook.If it can deliver,company will be rerated.

8)Entire mahindra group is worth a lot as a basket.So anything belonging from that stable is worth a bet.

9)Coal is a couple of trillion mcap.So would never buy it.Rest of the pack looks good.I recall I bought vst at 45 to sell at 50,11 years ago.

10)SPIC is nothing amazing.Sell on rally and move on to something better.

11)I dont understand IT well,so cant comment on firsource.I do track wheels and thats a quality bet.May not be multibagger but can provide 20-25% CAGR.

Bhavin Mehta said...

Arun Ji,
You had discussed the penny stock named "Rexnord Electronics and Controls" way back in 2011.
I have just analysed its fundamentals. This is pretty awesome stock.
What is your stand on this at present?

Anonymous said...

Dear Sir,

Can you kindly comment on following stocks:

1) Do we continue with BDH industries?
2) Whts your take on Mphasis.. I mean long term say 2-3 years?

sleepy said...

Hi arun
What is your view on ador welding,Jain irrigation and icici bank.can I hold them for long term

Nani Bommasani said...

Good Day Arun, I would like to know your view on Patels Airtemp. Some buying activity increased recently. One can Buy at current levels? Please share your view

Thanks
Hariprasad

Nani Bommasani said...

Good Day Arun, I would like to know your view on Flex Foods.Seems Good Dividend yield. One can Buy at current levels? Please share your view

Thanks
Hariprasad

thanveer said...

Dear Arun, Could you please light on a pharmaceutical company named Nutraplus India Ltd. Sales revenue is increasing each and every quarter. Would like to know the future prospectus of this firm.

kamal koli said...

Sir I have gitanjali at 94.90 and deepakntr at 94.25...sir what can I do.hold or sell in loss..

Vivek Chandrakar said...

Hello Sir,

I have recently joined your memebership and i am glad that i did that. Started getting some benefits already..

I would like to know your views on Falcon Tyres. quaterly results look good. Any issues with Promoters?

Looking forward to your reply.

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Sir
Ur view on resurgers mines and minearls can i buy as there is a buzz that in budget mines allotment will bo done

Anonymous said...

dear arun..which is good,sterlite tech or birla erricsson in optical fiber sector?

MOB HOME said...

arun sir what's ur view on gol offshore.

Anonymous said...

sir..Plase need your advise about GMR Infra and GVK Power for long term period.

Ashiq mehraj said...

Sir I am holding tnpl ltd and now wants to buy hub town ltd what is your upon both is it good buy thanks for your great job

Anonymous said...

Arun Sir,
any idea on "SUPER CROP SAFE LTD", will this be GREAT buy at CMP?

Anonymous said...

Arun sir what's your view on texmo pipe& products longterm

Anonymous said...

Arun ji one should enter at these level deepak nitrate or gruh finance

Arun Mukherjee said...

1)Rexnord is doing well,got a good management.But faces stiff competition and comes with an opportunity cost.

2)Depends upon you.Till BDH achieves some scale,it wont move big.Mphasis is a sound long term bet.

3)Ador,jain irrigation,ICICI bank all great long term bets.

4)Not tracking nutraplus.

5)Used to track falcon earlier but not tracking it anymore.Best to buy the leaders.MRF or apollo.

6)Gitanjali you can get my views from the blog.Deepak nitrite have recommended at 25(spilt adjustment) to paid members.So already a 4 bagger.

7)Resurgere is a crap.

8)Offshore players are slated do do well.So worth a watch.

9)GMR and GVK are bets not meant for retail investors.So many subsidiaries,cumbersome stuff,very hard to understand.

10)Can buy repco in place of gruh.Mortgage finance market has got a 15-20 year great structural story in place.All this gruh,repco will make lot of money.

11)Not following the other counters,thus cant comment.

Anonymous said...

Dude. What's your take on EPC irrigation. Will budget help this sector?

A tech saavy said...

Great working arun bhai let me know ur annual fees as wel as life time fees. Will u give exit calls to book profit after a point of time? Thanks in advance

Amit Ghosh said...

thanks for your reply Arun.

Ratna Kumar said...

Hi ARUN,,,which is the best private bank between yes bank,indusind,axis,icici,and hdfc bank for multibagger returns.

Shankar Dwibhashyam said...

Arun wats ur view on unitech for one year....

ELANGO MUNUSAMY said...

GOOD WORK ARUN

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