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Note: The artciles are not research reports but assimilation of information available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that I might have the dkiscussed companies in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased.Readers should consult registered consultants before making any investments
.

Archives : Old artciles

Friday, March 27, 2015

My Share Bazaar App/How to make 1cr with just 3 lakhs and stock idea:-Kokuyo Camlin Ltd

Dear Friends,

I am delighted to inform you that our app "Share Bazaar Your Market Guide" has been launched for everyone on Android Play Store. To download the app:

1. Search - Share Bazaar Arun - on the Android Play Store

OR

2. Go to the following link:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ams.newsfeed.activity&hl=en

This is a gift from me to all the stock market participants to keep them updated. Enjoy and keep compounding.Also do give your reviews and ratings about it.




From 3 lakhs to 1cr in 10 years:-

Want to be crorepati in 10 years?Just got 3 lakhs in portfolio?Feel that amount is not suffice to make so much?Check out how you can retire in just 10 years.

1)The first task you need to do to achieve that goal would be to simply relax.Forget all the stress and the surrounding miseries.Vow to yourself of not repeating those incessant gambling and short term trading blunders.Take oath of not giving a single penny to the corrupt govt in form of short term capital gains taxes.Force your greedy broker to shut shop and sell agarbattis in some noisy,stinky crowded local trains.Breath deeply with closed eyes and imagine the colour,the odour of 1cr.Are you ready to start the 10 year journey?Lets proceed buddies.

2)You need to find 10000 bucks at your disposal to help you to gain that much.That amount is actually the secret weapon of satiating your wealth desires.Just make sure that's there.Cut your expenses,stop fooling yourself with those unrealistic riveting movies which will enrich the producers at cost of your moist eyes.Travel in bus in place of ola cabs.Abolish pizzas,eradicate fancy outings.So finally the 10000 monthly bucks looks seemingly ready in your vicinity.

3)Be passionate and try to love the subject.Read my blog archives,the strategies.My experiences,what worked what didn't.Everyday ensure you are loyal to the subject.Put 2-3 hours daily.Can you really achieve something if you ain't crazy about it?Be in complete love,treat it like any other sexy lady you craved for in the earlier years(most of my members are kinda 30+,hence visualising  the past crushes(crashes often)would help,younger folks you may remain in the present).

4)Embrace reality.Accept it with both hands,if your future multibagger moves to 13rs from 10 in a period of 12 months.The whole gimmick of 1cr is based on a 10 year CAGR of 30% with help of 10000 bucks monthly SIP.Stop plundering my mailbox with silly questions of something not moving.Be patient,let the amazing stories unfold.Stock prices multiplies.Ones something starts the journey,100 becomes 200,200 to 400 and it's keeps complimenting the figures with higher multiplications.

5)Buy only high quality companies.Stop checking into penny priced dubiously managed companies operated by fly by night operators in camouflage of promoters.Your cohorts or mates barking in public forums with insider infos are part of that ignoramuses which probably owns 5 shares ,bought at the highest rates,looking to unwind the next day with dreams of quadrupling his fund every other fortnight.Either befriend them or make those the source of your daily dose of entertainment.

6)Stop putting all your eggs in the same basket.Make a portfolio of 12-15 stocks.Even 10 will do.A concentrated portfolio is needed to make wealth.A more diversified portfolio is meant for wealth preservation and a concentrated portfolio is all about wealth creation.That adage comes from the Oracle of Omaha,the greatest investor ever to graced Mother Earth-Buffet Grandpa.Now this ain't for everyone.Recall my 5% logic?You can only opt for it if you can relate yourself to markets.If you are experienced,few years would help.You need to understand the businesses simply.Ride the horse being the jockey.My stock market tutorials in the forthcoming app would help a great deal to understand the aspects.

7)Make someone a Guru.Anybody who is experienced with wealth generation record will help.Read him,follow him,make him your idol.Now please don't consider me a guru.A few of my critics take the guru tag of my blog much seriously than I ever fathomed.It so happened in 2007 when I was about to start blogging,a movie called Partner released which showcased the protagonist as Love guru.That was all I needed,the catchy tag also helped in scoring high through the SEO.I am just one of you with much more man hours experience,lot more blunders and bit more passion than peers.Just your average joe ,putting daily 12 hours in knowing the unending,mysterious wealth generating machine known as stock markets.If you ask me about my guru,there's none actually.I listen to all and adept to what seems feasible.

8)Never hope against hope of making much with albatrosses.A lot of you guys sleep with utter craps and associate yourself with the irrelevant myth of hardly getting anything if disposed.Sell them,even losses helps a lot.Try to learn from it and promise of not repeating the mistake again.Put those pennies in those high quality stocks where you have  conviction and confidence.Don't just delay.Get rid of them the next trading session itself.Also reinvest dividends even if they ain't much.Every penny counts in stock markets.It would again be prudent to note that your's truly just had all of thousand bucks when he first entered the arena of stock markets.

I don't want to lecture more.Its high time the words are taken seriously and put in act.If any doubts or query persist,call me or my competent guys.Meet me,visit me in my home.My door is open for all of you.





Recent call to members.Readers its time for you guys to act as there's still quite a bit on the table.

Stock idea:-

Scripscan:Kokuyo Camlin Ltd
Traded in:Nse-Bse
Buy range:63rs
Target:95rs
Percentage returns:50%
Duration:9-12 months
Portfolio allocation:5%

Company Overview: Anybody who studied in Indian primary and secondary schools during the last couple of decades would definitely recognize brands like ‘Camel’ and ‘Camlin’ without needing a reference. The company manufactures and sells a wide range of products such as artistic materials, hobby colours, scholastic colours, scholastic stationery, office products, drawing instruments, writing instruments, office stationery, adhesives, notebooks, office supplies and writing instruments. Founded as a partnership firm named, Dandekar & Co. in early 1930s to conduct the business of fountain pen ink, stamp inks, adhesive paste, gum, sealing wax, chalks, etc, the firm finally incorporated as ‘Camlin Private Limited’ in 1946. The company got listed on BSE in 1988; in the year 2011, Kokuyo S&T, a Japanese corporation (which has been listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange since 1971) engaged in the business of stationery, acquired a majority stake in the company.

Business Overview: The company now has one of the largest product portfolios in the industry spanning over 2000 SKUs manufactured at plants located at Gangyal & Samba in J&K, Taloja, Tarapur and Vasai in Maharashtra. In addition, the company building a state-of-the-art facility at Patalganga Industrial Area; spread over 14 acres, is likely to be completed in 2016. The Management believes that this facility will become the foundation for their next phase of growth and will help them gaining leverage in terms of economies of size, scale and scope. The 80 years old business now carries a strong brand recognition, an extensive supply chain network and caters to wide range of products, primarily categorized into (a) school and education products (b) fine art and hobby products and (c) office products. They do in-house manufacturing of water colour cakes, water tubes, poster colours, wax crayons, oil pastels, plastic crayons, sketch pens, wooden pencils, scales, sharpeners, colour pencils, erasers, math sets, dissection boxes, engineering boxes, other technical instruments, note books, mechanical pencils, hi-polymer leads, fountain pen and its ink, artist oil colours, artist acrylic colours, canvas rolls, canvas boards, artist water colours, oil sketching papers, drawing inks, brushes, painting mediums, glass colours, fabric colours, powder colours, fabric glue, artist poster colours, white board markers, permanent markers, highlighters, ball pen, gel pen, stamp pads, refills, paint markers, cd markers, carbon papers, glue sticks and gum. In the organized market, the company competes with Hindustan Pencils Limited, Faber Castel Limited, Sundaram Multi Pap Limited, Navneet Publications (India) Limited and Cello Writing Instruments.

Industry Overview: The Indian stationery industry is highly fragmented, fiercely competitive and mostly unorganized; less than a fifth of the industry is non-branded local manufacturers.The industry is primarily divided into two segments office stationery and school stationary; according to the annual report, the school stationery segment is estimated to be around Rs.9,000 crores annually, whereas the office stationery segment is estimated to be in about Rs.5,000 crores annually; while on the product-wise segmentation, it has three segments namely, computer and daily use, writing instrument and notebooks and paper. With the government’s focus on education sector which remains the need of the hour in a rapidly developing country like India, the scope for growing stationery business is immense. In addition, the industry is well positioned to be benefited from the country’s favourable demographics with one of the youngest populations, fast-growing middle class. With the interests of government and private players, the number of schools, colleges and universities has been increasing consistently. Nevertheless, with such huge scope being offered and presence of unorganized market, with not much entry-level-barrier, the industry witnesses new entrants on a daily basis. In-line with the ongoing transformations in the stationery industry, the company has taken a long-term and strategic decision to build up capacity, capability and competency.

Financials & Valuations: In the industry which is so widely fragmented and primarily unorganized, the company has grown steadily over the last decade. It has grown at a CAGR of ~10% in the short-to-medium-to-long term from just Rs.200 crores in FY04 to nearly Rs.470 crores in FY14. The company has maintained an operating margin of 7-9% from FY09 to FY11.However, with the surge in the raw material prices which makes more than a third of the sales, the profit margins had eroded over the last few years. The company depends on raw material suppliers for dyes & pigments, wood, plastic containers, chemicals, metal containers, paper products etc, the prices of which fluctuates a lot. The recent dip in the commodity prices is likely to benefit the company in order to improve profitability. With the anticipated improvement at the operating level, the bottom-line losses will be wiped out.Meanwhile, the company remains virtually debt free along with the proceeds worth of Rs.103 crores from the rights issue which is being utilized at the Patalganga facility. Going forward, we expect the company to reach a top-line of Rs.750 crores by FY17 (during the current year, the growth has already accelerated to 15% driven by new additions to its product-line. The company in order to hive-off the impact of seasonality has plans to introduce whole new range of office stationery; and the new facility impact from FY16) and assuming a very much possible EBITDA margin of 9% gives us an EBITDA of Rs.68 crores, leaving away Rs.20 crores towards the interest and depreciation and another Rs.10 crores for taxes, we will be left with a net profit of Rs.38 crores that translates into an earnings of Rs. 3.79 for FY17. Assigning a PE multiple of 25x, we gets a target price of Rs.95; a 50%% upside from current levels.

Risks: Fierce competition, raw material risks, price fluctuations takes away all the profits.

Outlook: We remain encouraged with the industry and the stationery business which presents huge opportunity in our country where the consumption of paper is minimal in comparison with other countries. Where there is a huge massive chunk of population getting ready for the education. In addition, the company’s endeavours to polish the brand, building up capacities, capabilities and competencies makes our conviction reach higher.


BTW:For different stock market related services,rush a mail at my mail id arunsharemarket@gmail.com to know more about it.



Note: The above is not a research report but assimilation of information available on public domain and it should not be treated as a research report.

Registration status with SEBI: I am not registered with SEBI under the (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 and as per clarifications provided by SEBI: “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Disclosure: It is safe to assume that I might have camlin in my portfolio and hence my point of view can be biased.Readers should consult registered consultants before making any investments
.

15 comments:

Supam Das said...

Yes its a great call

bansri said...

Price to Earning: 647.96
Company has a low return on equity of -5.61% for last 3 years.
but sir you recommed so great call

Anonymous said...

Hi arun
pls give some idea on nilkamal and bombay burmah trading .
Thanks.

Dinesh Potdar said...

Nice App. Thanks.
Plz. Advice on sintex industries@120., Anuh pharma @ 385 & Arrow textile@ 37...going down. ..can be hold for 1 yr for better results?...

Anonymous said...

what is you view about navneet

Anonymous said...

Arun sir can you pls give suggestion on seamec and ifgl at cmp

Karthik Kannan said...

Dear ARUN,

Can I buy star ferro cement at this level?

Ashish Patel said...

what is the future of persistent system, talwalkaers fitness, nitin fire protection, videocon ind., l&T holding, Essel propack, JK Bank, Fed bank???

i had large chunk among them. whether they have potential to grow more than 25%CAGR for nxt 10-15 years.

Eshant said...

Hi Arun,

Read your article regarding 1 crore with 3 lakhs. Following that if I can invest 10,000/- in first week of April,which script would you recommend.

Regards,
Eshant

Naveen Natarajan said...

Can you please make this app available for Blackberry phones also?

niraj said...

Hi Arun,

Any views on the future of IFGL Refractories and Nilkamal?

Arun Mukherjee said...

Congrats readers for making a bounty in Camlin.Hope you all liking the app and reading all the contents.Kindly post all your queries in the app.Please do rate and review the up.Link to download remains.

To download the app:

1. Search - Share Bazaar Arun - on the Android Play Store

OR

2. Go to the following link:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ams.newsfeed.activity&hl=en

Arun Mukherjee said...

Congrats readers for making a bounty in Camlin.Hope you all liking the app and reading all the contents.Kindly post all your queries in the app.Please do rate and review the up.Link to download remains.

To download the app:

1. Search - Share Bazaar Arun - on the Android Play Store

OR

2. Go to the following link:

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=ams.newsfeed.activity&hl=en

@pranayy said...

There r few who truly r guiding force..u r one of them...I m new to trading..can u recommend some good mid caps for holding period of 9-12 months

@pranayy said...

There r few who truly r guiding force..u r one of them...I m new to trading..can u recommend some good mid caps for holding period of 9-12 months

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This blog does not share personal information with third parties nor do we store any information about your visit to this blog other than to analyze and optimize your content and reading experience through the use of cookies.You can turn off the use of cookies at anytime by changing your specific browser settings.This privacy policy is subject to change without notice and was last updated on 20.3.2013. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me directly here: arunsharemarket@gmail.com Investment in equity shares has its own risks.Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective.The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that I consider reliable. I,however,do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof.This material is for personal information and am not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it & take no responsibility whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above.The stock price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance.The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice.
 
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